Prometheus ETF Portfolio
Disinflation Dominates
Welcome to Prometheus ETF Portfolio. The Prometheus ETF Portfolio aims to allow everyday investors to access an investment solution that combines active macro alpha, passive beta, and strict risk control, all in an easy-to-follow, low-turnover solution. We aim to achieve strong risk-adjusted returns relative to cash, with limited capital drawdowns in depth and duration. We do this in a highly accessible package, which rotates between three highly liquid ETFs, readily available to any investor with a brokerage account.
We visualize the simulated return path for the program below:
Our observations are as follows:
The distribution of forward-looking macroeconomic regime probabilities is now dominated by falling inflation.
Our high-frequency tracking of macroeconomic fundamentals suggests that falling inflation in now the dominant fundamental force in the economy.
Our macro regime probabilities allowed the Prometheus ETF Portfolio to successfully avoid commodities this week, which were down on every trading day of the week.
Our systems take signals from markets and the economy to create a comprehensive, high-frequency macro view. A disinflationary tilt to portfolio construction remains warranted.
Let's begin sharing the data that drives our current assessment of the macro regime and our subsequent risk management and positions.
Macro Regime Monitor
Our Macro Regime Monitors combine measures of macro trend, mean reversion, expected returns, and fundamental economic conditions to estimate tomorrow’s cross-asset, macro market environment. We recommend checking out the primer if you’re unfamiliar with these tools:
We share the latest readings below:
Our Macro Regime Monitors have moved towards falling inflation as the dominant macro regime. We visualize the expected return profiles that one can expect during this distribution of predicted regimes below: