The Prometheus List

Research We Endorse

Macroeconomies are vast, complex adaptive systems with millions of working parts. No macro firm, whether the largest hedge fund in the world or the most sophisticated research institution, can track every component of markets with a high degree of subject-matter expertise. Every firm must rely on external research to varying degrees to inform idea generation, test hypotheses, and compare ongoing assessments of macro conditions. At Prometheus, we are no exception to this rule and rely on a list of experts who offer high-quality, differentiated insights that educate, challenge, and complement our own. We begin sharing this list in this note.

The bar to be on this list is high. The firms and individuals on this list provide some combination of data, insight, acumen, or experience that we cannot systematically replicate internally. We regularly examine their work and use it as a lever to improve our own. We engage with these perspectives to sharpen our thinking, stress-test our frameworks, and expose blind spots that inevitably emerge in any systematic approach. In some cases, we agree. In others, we do not. Both are valuable. What matters is that each contributes something distinct, whether data, perspective, or methodology, helping us build a more complete picture of an ever-evolving investment landscape. By sharing this list, we hope to provide readers and clients with a guide to the best independent research providers to use when deciding how to allocate their attention and resources.

Inclusion is not about agreement or endorsement of every view of those on the list, but about a consistent demonstration of rigor, clarity, and originality. In that sense, this list serves as a benchmark for what we believe constitutes consistent high-caliber work. The list is not complete, and we will continue to add to it over time. The first three names on this list, which we release today, reflect our longest-standing subscriptions and relationships. We will continue to share a new name on this list every week to give each addition its due attention. The list will be maintained in alphabetical order. Without further ado, here is The Prometheus List:

Andy Constan: Damped Spring

Damped Spring is the best resource for thinking through market pricing. Andy’s background, having worked at two of the premier discretionary and systematic macro hedge funds, makes his work truly unique. Damped Spring offers some of the best work on the interrelation between flows and risk premiums available, but crucially, it also offers significant expertise in structuring views around these macro drivers of assets. They also offer a variety of free investor education, which we have found valuable for both recreational and professional investors.

Bob Elliott: Nonconsensus

Nonconsensus is our primary go-to for comparing notes on the evolution of the US economy relative to what’s priced into markets. Bob provides an extremely cohesive picture of the evolution of the economy and its prospects, and then compares that with cross-asset pricing. If you’re looking for an insightful, systematically actionable way of tracking the economy, Nonconsensus is for you. Of course, Nonconsensus also showcases Bob’s expertise across a wide variety of topics beyond traditional US macro—in-depth in-depth assessments of the US financial system, systematic portfolio construction principles, and regular evaluations of the global economic landscape are among the things we always expect Nonconsensus to shed light on. It is one the best resource for tracking the narrative evolution of the global economy, with a US focus.

Michael Howell: Capital Wars

Capital Wars is our primary reference for understanding liquidity and its transmission into asset prices. Michael is the pre-eminent authority on liquidity. We have found this work to be essential in expanding the universe of macro analysis beyond growth and inflation to include balance sheet concepts, which are an increasingly important consideration in an extremely financialized global economy.

Capital War’s approach is truly unique and data-driven. If you’re looking for a systematic lens on liquidity as a core driver of macro and markets, Capital Wars is for you.

Macro Musings by Danny D

Danny offers a apative framework approach to macro. Using a litany of models, signals, and historical studies, Danny seeks to create a cohesive picture of what’s driving markets in order to trade the big themes. Macro Musings has all the models and experience available on the sell-side, along with the judgment of when and how to use them on the buy-side. In addition to his macro frameworks, Danny also has significant experience with derivatives-based expressions of macro views, which are essential to a professional macro investor’s toolkit. If you’re looking for a truly independent macro framework, weaponized with convex exposures— Macro Musings is for you.

Finally, it’s important to note that there is no way to buy your way onto this list, and there never will be. But if you believe someone should be considered for inclusion, let us know.

Until next time.