The Observatory: Retail Sales Monitor
Prometheus Institutional: All Access Week
At Prometheus, we are committed to equipping our clients with the most granular, high-frequency, and actionable read of macro conditions in the industry — translated, every day, into systematic signals across global markets. For this whole week, readers will receive signals and research typically reserved exclusively for Prometheus Institutional clients.
This access will include our tracking of fundamental conditions via The Observatory, select signals from the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program, excerpts from The Monitor, and daily updates to our Macro Regime Probabilities. Out of respect for our clients at Prometheus Institutional, we cannot make every part of our work available here for free — but the volume and depth of what we share this week will be substantial.
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Or get in touch by emailing info@prometheus-research.com. We share our latest note from The Observatory.
The Observatory is our real-time monitoring of the US economy. It offers a regular systematic dissection of virtually every major fundamental macro data set released in the US. We scan the time-series characteristics, sectoral decompositions, macro-cycle implications, and the effects on GDP and inflation of each release, with an understanding of the nuances and specific manipulations required for each data series. The Observatory seeks to paint a moving picture of the economic cycle, print by print.
We share our latest note from The Observatory: Retail Sales Monitor.
Synthesis: The latest retail sales numbers show some of the initial effects of the inflation shock from the spike in oil prices. Gas sales accounted for much of nominal sales; however, after accounting for inflation, our estimates indicate materially negative retail sales. This decline in real retail sales suggests a material step-down in consumer spending.
Read all the data driving this assessment below:
Until next time.