The Observatory is our real-time monitoring of the US economy. It offers a regular systematic dissection of virtually every major fundamental macro data set released in the US. We scan the time-series characteristics, sectoral decompositions, macro-cycle implications, and the effects on GDP and inflation of each release, with an understanding of the nuances and specific manipulations required for each data series. The Observatory seeks to paint a moving picture of the economic cycle, print by print.
We share our latest note from The Observatory: ISM Manufacturing Monitor.
Synthesis: The latest ISM manufacturing data continue to show expansionary readings. While the latest print showed a deceleration in the recent trend, PMI internals continue to signal potential for accelerating future prints. This dynamic modestly supports GDP but continues to provide material support to industrial equity earnings.
Read all the data driving this assessment below:
Until next time.