Residential Monitor
Pressures Starting To Emerge
Welcome to The Observatory. The Observatory is how we at Prometheus monitor the evolution of the economy and financial markets in real time. The insights provided here are slivers of our research process that are integrated algorithmically into our systems to create rules-based portfolios.
Our primary takeaways are as follows:
The recent trend in housing data showed signs of a sequential deceleration, with building permits, starts, and completions decreasing.
While its impact on trending NGDP growth remains limited, our real residential investment estimates show emerging pressures. This remains in line with a broader slowing of growth conditions.
In the context of markets, homebuilders' equity prices have declined sequentially, in line with the current residential investment trend. We continue to monitor carefully to see if this weakness can metastasize into a significant contraction. For now, this weakness remains consistent with a Slowing, But Growing economy.
