Prometheus ETF Portfolio
Weekly Rebalance: 02.28.2025
Welcome to Prometheus ETF Portfolio. The Prometheus ETF Portfolio aims to allow everyday investors to access an investment solution that combines active macro alpha, passive beta, and strict risk control, all in an easy-to-follow, low-turnover solution. We aim to achieve strong risk-adjusted returns relative to cash, with limited capital drawdowns in depth and duration. We do this in a highly accessible package, which rotates between three highly liquid ETFs, readily available to any investor with a brokerage account.
Let’s dive into our observations.
Market Monitor: Over the last week, macro markets fell in aggregate, with stocks falling, commodities falling, treasuries rising, and gold falling. Over the last week, markets have moved to incrementally price a falling growth environment. More broadly, our market regime monitors are showing a dominant market regime probability of falling growth, rising inflation, and rising liquidity.
Economic Data Monitor: Economic data momentum remained flat with mixed data across the board. Over the last week, Continuing Jobless Claims was the data release that macro markets took the most signal from with stocks falling, bonds rising, and commodities falling. While markets have moved significantly, we have not yet seen a very material change in measures of economic activity. This creates potential regime instability for the current risk-off trend.
Asset Class Signals: While equity markets have fallen, we are yet to see any meaningful change in signal strength. In fact, our equity signals have moved upwards. At the same time, we have seen meaningful declines in our commodity signals. If extended, we expect to see an exit from commodity positions entirely over the next few weeks.
ETF Portfolio Updates: Over the last week, the Prometheus ETF Portfolio was down by -2.5%. The contributions to these portfolio returns were as follows: -1.2% from stocks, -1.32% from commodities, 0% from bonds, and 0% from cash.