Thanks for the update. Question about the market regime monitor: is the 1-month probability the probability of each regime over the next month? And what are the YTD and Qrtr probabilities representing? For Qrtr, for example, is it the probability of what regime we will have for the full Q1? Thanks
Good question! The regime probabilities are for the trialing period noted- so what have markets priced over the last 1 month, quarter or year. The top-line is our estimation of what the durable current regime is, which we usually expect to remain stable over the near future (months).
Great content as always. Can you provide some background on the Timing Tools: Market Cycle Recognition? Are these trend following indicators? Also, it's very difficult to see. Could you graph it from a shorter term perspective to provide better resolution?
Thanks for the update. Question about the market regime monitor: is the 1-month probability the probability of each regime over the next month? And what are the YTD and Qrtr probabilities representing? For Qrtr, for example, is it the probability of what regime we will have for the full Q1? Thanks
Good question! The regime probabilities are for the trialing period noted- so what have markets priced over the last 1 month, quarter or year. The top-line is our estimation of what the durable current regime is, which we usually expect to remain stable over the near future (months).
Is the BIL ETF essentially the same has holding the short term treasuries so that there is no down side risk? I looked the chart and it was confusing.
Yes- BIL is meant to be a cash equivalent allocation.
Thanks
Great content as always. Can you provide some background on the Timing Tools: Market Cycle Recognition? Are these trend following indicators? Also, it's very difficult to see. Could you graph it from a shorter term perspective to provide better resolution?
Glad to hear it.