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Prometheus Research's avatar

Asset prices are expectations future macro conditions. What matters is when those expectations change, and what drivers those changes and big shifts in the economy. If you recognise big shifts/get ahead of them, you can make big gains for your investment strategies.

Andy is a friend and we have respect for his views. That said, argument from DS is fine, but it’s also circular. It amounts to stocks go down because stocks go down. That’s fine, but by adding the extra complexity, you decrease your signal

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Joseph Chien's avatar

It seems you are saying real economic conditions drive capital markets. Andy Constan of Damp Spring says bond yields spiking will hurt stocks creating negative wealth effect, reduce people’s ability to borrow and spend, slowing down economic activities, employment, and consumption, thus ending inflation. The Fed guy Joseph Wang says stocks will prove to be resilient against high yields for a long time just as the housing boom up until 2007 GFC.

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