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Navigating Stock Market Volatility
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The Observatory

Navigating Stock Market Volatility

Insights From Our S&P 500 Program

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Prometheus Research
Mar 17, 2025
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Navigating Stock Market Volatility
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We will release our Prometheus S&P 500 program in the coming month. However, markets are moving quickly, and we wanted to share insights from our signals to help investors navigate risk during these challenging times.

The Prometheus S&P 500 Program seeks to outperform the S&P 500 over a full investment cycle. We define a full investment cycle as a period of time where markets have experienced bull and bear markets with a generalized upward drift.

For the purposes of this post, we will share the programmatic views of the conservative version of this program. This program targets a maximum of 10% expected risk. This version will lag indexes during extremely strong, highly volatile bull markets. However, over the full investment cycle, this program seeks to outperform. We visualize the simulated 3-year returns below:

Today, while equity markets are in a drawdown of approximately 8%, the program has taken only about half that drawdown, maintaining a drawdown of 4%. This is consistent with the portfolio objectives. Today, the portfolio is positioned as follows:

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