Macro Regime Probabilities

Prometheus Institutional: All Access Week

At Prometheus, we are committed to equipping our clients with the most granular, high-frequency, and actionable read of macro conditions in the industry — translated, every day, into systematic signals across global markets. For this whole week, readers will receive signals and research typically reserved exclusively for Prometheus Institutional clients.

This access will include our tracking of fundamental conditions via The Observatory, select signals from the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program, excerpts from The Monitor, and daily updates to our Macro Regime Probabilities. Out of respect for our clients at Prometheus Institutional, we cannot make every part of our work available here for free — but the volume and depth of what we share this week will be substantial.

Our objective in sharing these materials is to give you a glimpse of all the tools available at Prometheus Institutional. For a deeper overview of Prometheus Institutional, read the link below:

Or get in touch by emailing info@prometheus-research.com.

Every day at midday, we share updates to our US Macro Regime Probabilities with Prometheus Institutional, along with our synthesis of what the current regime probabilities suggest.

Our Macro Regime Probabilities use our bottom-up signals across asset markets to construct forward-looking estimates for the cross-asset macro market regime. These signals incorporate both fundamental and price-based information to produce high-frequency, forward-looking estimates for the US cross-asset environment. These signals are best used as a forward-looking guide for the cross-sectional returns across macroeconomic assets. We define the regimes as follows:

• (+) G (-) I: Rising Growth & Falling Inflation, Equities Outperform

• (+) G (+) I: Rising Growth & Rising Inflation, Commodities Outperform

• (-) G (-) I: Falling Growth & Falling Inflation, Treasuries Outperform

• (-) G (+) I: Falling Growth & Rising Inflation, TIPs Outperform

Synthesis: Our Macro Regime Probabilities continue to show a dominance of rising growth and inflation probabilities. The regime mix is now biased toward rising growth. This regime mix continues to favor equities and commodities relative to fixed income.

Until next time.