<![CDATA[Prometheus Research: Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program]]>

<![CDATA[Prometheus Research: Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program]]>https://www.prometheus-macro.com/s/prometheus-multi-strategy-programhttps://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qmcQ!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa02f9e91-4feb-4772-bfdd-6748b9519fa0_400x400.pngPrometheus Research: Prometheus Multi-Strategy Programhttps://www.prometheus-macro.com/s/prometheus-multi-strategy-programSubstackSun, 05 Jul 2026 05:25:13 GMT<![CDATA[Disinflation Dominates]]>https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/disinflation-dominateshttps://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/disinflation-dominatesTue, 30 Jun 2026 17:52:48 GMTAn update to the regimes.

Every day at midday, we share updates to our US Macro Regime Probabilities with Prometheus Institutional, along with our synthesis of what the current regime probabilities suggest.

Our Macro Regime Probabilities use our bottom-up signals across asset markets to construct forward-looking estimates for the cross-asset macro market regime. These signals incorporate both fundamental and price-based information to produce high-frequency, forward-looking estimates for the US cross-asset environment. These signals are best used as a forward-looking guide for the cross-sectional returns across macroeconomic assets. We define the regimes as follows:

(+) G (-) I: Rising Growth & Falling Inflation, Equities Outperform
(+) G (+) I: Rising Growth & Rising Inflation, Commodities Outperform
(-) G (-) I: Falling Growth & Falling Inflation, Treasuries Outperform
(-) G (+) I: Falling Growth & Rising Inflation, TIPs Outperform

We visualize our updated regimes below:

]]><![CDATA[Disinflation Continues]]>https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/disinflation-continues-777https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/disinflation-continues-777Sun, 28 Jun 2026 22:22:33 GMTWe’re offering 40% off to new annual subscribers until midnight tonight.

Flash Sale: 40% Off

We use our Week Ahead notes as a thematic overlay to surface the parts of our process that are generating the most important signals in the current context.

Flash Sale: 40% Off

Find the complete note attached below:

Week Ahead 6.28.2026

1.2MB ∙ PDF file

Until next time.

]]><![CDATA[Beware Of Transitory Disinflation]]>https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/beware-of-transitory-disinflationhttps://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/beware-of-transitory-disinflationThu, 25 Jun 2026 20:08:38 GMTAn update on our macro regime probabilities and daily tracking of fundamental economic conditions and what they mean for macro markets.

Every day at midday, we share updates to our US Macro Regime Probabilities with Prometheus Institutional, along with our synthesis of what the current regime probabilities suggest.

Our Macro Regime Probabilities use our bottom-up signals across asset markets to construct forward-looking estimates for the cross-asset macro market regime. These signals incorporate both fundamental and price-based information to produce high-frequency, forward-looking estimates for the US cross-asset environment. These signals are best used as a forward-looking guide for the cross-sectional returns across macroeconomic assets. We define the regimes as follows:

(+) G (-) I: Rising Growth & Falling Inflation, Equities Outperform
(+) G (+) I: Rising Growth & Rising Inflation, Commodities Outperform
(-) G (-) I: Falling Growth & Falling Inflation, Treasuries Outperform
(-) G (+) I: Falling Growth & Rising Inflation, TIPs Outperform

Synthesis: Our Macro Regime Probabilities continued to show a far flatter distribution of macroeconomic outcomes than in the recent past, with a dominance of disinflationary outcomes. As we have repeatedly noted, disinflationary outcomes remain contingent on sustained weakness in the oil complex. Given that oil has reversed most of its post-war announcement moves and global economic activity continues to underpin demand, the potential for a further breakdown in oil prices appears more limited. Furthermore, our short-term regime signals for crude have now turned neutral:

The regime-expected return profiles of assets continue to favor equities and fixed income over commodities:

A risk-matched mix of equities and fixed income offers attractive risk-adjusted returns with a historical Sharpe of 0.75 (time-weighted by regime similarity). This is supported by our fundamental tracking as well. Our CPI Nowcast remains well south of 2%:

Alongside the near-term disinflation, our nominal growth trackers remain elevated:

Given this backdrop of disinflationary growth, a mix of equities and fixed income looks poised to perform well in the near term. However, we continue to flag that the fixed-income bid remains contingent on sustained downward moves in oil, and current indications suggest there is materially less room for that trend to continue. Equities, while beneficiaries of disinflation, are more insulated from a potential halt to oil declines. A mix of equities and bonds, risk managed with stops, likely offers the best payoff in most scenarios.

Until next time.

]]><![CDATA[A Transition Into Rising Real Growth?]]>https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/a-transition-into-rising-real-growthhttps://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/a-transition-into-rising-real-growthFri, 19 Jun 2026 15:37:15 GMTThis note is one typically reserved for clients of Prometheus Institutional. Occasionally, we make these notes available to supplement our offering.

We use our Week Ahead notes as a thematic overlay to surface the parts of our process that are generating the most important signals in the current context. We share a note from 5.31.2026 as we continue to see the mechanics hold.

Find the complete note attached below:

]]><![CDATA[Macro Regime Probabilities]]>https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/macro-regime-probabilities-ed2https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/macro-regime-probabilities-ed2Fri, 12 Jun 2026 17:43:51 GMTAt Prometheus, we are committed to equipping our clients with the most granular, high-frequency, and actionable read of macro conditions in the industry — translated, every day, into systematic signals across global markets. Prometheus Institutional gives our clients access to our tracking of fundamental conditions via The Observatory, daily updates to our Macro Regime Probabilities, our signal-based views on global markets from The Monitor, and machine-readable signals from the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program.

For a deeper overview of Prometheus Institutional, read the link below:

Every day at midday, we share updates to our US Macro Regime Probabilities with Prometheus Institutional, along with our synthesis of what the current regime probabilities suggest.

Our Macro Regime Probabilities use our bottom-up signals across asset markets to construct forward-looking estimates for the cross-asset macro market regime. These signals incorporate both fundamental and price-based information to produce high-frequency, forward-looking estimates for the US cross-asset environment. These signals are best used as a forward-looking guide for the cross-sectional returns across macroeconomic assets. We define the regimes as follows:

(+) G (-) I: Rising Growth & Falling Inflation, Equities Outperform
(+) G (+) I: Rising Growth & Rising Inflation, Commodities Outperform
(-) G (-) I: Falling Growth & Falling Inflation, Treasuries Outperform
(-) G (+) I: Falling Growth & Rising Inflation, TIPs Outperform

Synthesis: Our Macro Regime Probabilities have shifted to reflect a higher probability of disinflationary cross-asset market outcomes. This shift materially reduces near-term pressure on fixed-income markets and moderates the potential strength of commodities. Crucially, this change further boosts the expected returns for equities by reducing the downside pressure on rate expectations. We visualize the expected returns for assets scaled by regime similarity over time below:

This regime mix favors being long stocks, bonds, and commodities—i.e., the preference for fixed-income shorts is removed. We show the expected returns for this portfolio scaled by regime similarity over time below:

We remain cautious on treasury exposure. While regime conditions are now more supportive, we think it is essential to recognize that these are potentially transient, market-action-driven shifts rather than a material change in fundamentals that will drive the Fed’s calculus. Pressure being lifted from breakeven pricing is not the same as pressure being lifted from the Fed; the latter is a far more durable signal for fixed income. Thus, we see this increase in disinflationary probabilities as more supportive of equities than fixed income.

Until next time.

]]><![CDATA[Macro Regime Probabilities]]>https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/macro-regime-probabilities-55fhttps://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/macro-regime-probabilities-55fWed, 03 Jun 2026 16:17:36 GMTAt Prometheus, we are committed to equipping our clients with the most granular, high-frequency, and actionable read of macro conditions in the industry — translated, every day, into systematic signals across global markets. Prometheus Institutional gives our clients access to our tracking of fundamental conditions via The Observatory, daily updates to our Macro Regime Probabilities, our signal-based views on global markets from The Monitor, and machine-readable signals from the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program. From time to time, we share insights from Prometheus Institutional that we believe will be useful to the broader investment community.

For a deeper overview of Prometheus Institutional, read the link below:

Every day at midday, we share updates to our US Macro Regime Probabilities with Prometheus Institutional, along with our synthesis of what the current regime probabilities suggest.

Our Macro Regime Probabilities use our bottom-up signals across asset markets to construct forward-looking estimates for the cross-asset macro market regime. These signals incorporate both fundamental and price-based information to produce high-frequency, forward-looking estimates for the US cross-asset environment. These signals are best used as a forward-looking guide for the cross-sectional returns across macroeconomic assets. We define the regimes as follows:

(+) G (-) I: Rising Growth & Falling Inflation, Equities Outperform
(+) G (+) I: Rising Growth & Rising Inflation, Commodities Outperform
(-) G (-) I: Falling Growth & Falling Inflation, Treasuries Outperform
(-) G (+) I: Falling Growth & Rising Inflation, TIPs Outperform

Synthesis: Our Macro Regime Probabilities continue to show a dominance of rising probabilities for growth and inflation. The regime mix remains biased toward rising growth. This regime continues to favor equities and commodities over fixed income, with the near-term more likely to favor equities. Below, we visualize the systematic application of this view over time, scaling our exposure to a portfolio that is long stocks, long commodities, and short fixed income based on regime-similarity:

Rising growth and inflation regimes have become more regular after a period of dormancy from 1980 to 2020. We continue to believe that asset allocation needs to adapt to reflect this shift.

Until next time.

]]><![CDATA[Macro Regime Probabilities]]>https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/macro-regime-probabilities-5e0https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/macro-regime-probabilities-5e0Thu, 28 May 2026 16:26:58 GMTEvery day at midday, we share updates to our US Macro Regime Probabilities with Prometheus Institutional, along with our synthesis of what the current regime probabilities suggest.

Our Macro Regime Probabilities use our bottom-up signals across asset markets to construct forward-looking estimates for the cross-asset macro market regime. These signals incorporate both fundamental and price-based information to produce high-frequency, forward-looking estimates for the US cross-asset environment. These signals are best used as a forward-looking guide for the cross-sectional returns across macroeconomic assets. We define the regimes as follows:

(+) G (-) I: Rising Growth & Falling Inflation, Equities Outperform
(+) G (+) I: Rising Growth & Rising Inflation, Commodities Outperform
(-) G (-) I: Falling Growth & Falling Inflation, Treasuries Outperform
(-) G (+) I: Falling Growth & Rising Inflation, TIPs Outperform

]]><![CDATA[The Observatory: Industrial Production Monitor]]>https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/the-observatory-industrial-production-989https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/the-observatory-industrial-production-989Fri, 15 May 2026 17:10:45 GMTAt Prometheus, we are committed to equipping our clients with the most granular, high-frequency, and actionable read of macro conditions in the industry — translated, every day, into systematic signals across global markets. For this whole week, readers will receive signals and research typically reserved exclusively for Prometheus Institutional clients.

This access will include our tracking of fundamental conditions via The Observatory, select signals from the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program, excerpts from The Monitor, and daily updates to our Macro Regime Probabilities. Out of respect for our clients at Prometheus Institutional, we cannot make every part of our work available here for free — but the volume and depth of what we share this week will be substantial.

Our objective in sharing these materials is to give you a glimpse of all the tools available at Prometheus Institutional. For a deeper overview of Prometheus Institutional, read the link below:

Or get in touch by emailing info@prometheus-research.com. We share our latest note from The Observatory.

The Observatory is our real-time monitoring of the US economy. It offers a regular systematic dissection of virtually every major fundamental macro data set released in the US. We scan the time-series characteristics, sectoral decompositions, macro-cycle implications, and the effects on GDP and inflation of each release, with an understanding of the nuances and specific manipulations required for each data series. The Observatory seeks to paint a moving picture of the economic cycle, print by print.

We share our latest note from The Observatory: Industrial Production Monitor.

Synthesis: The latest industrial production data continued to show mixed, but nonetheless positive readings. The latest sequential data and the trending breadth continue to skew positive. However, recent momentum has been mixed, weighing on growth. This print suggests continued expansion of the industrial sector, but does not imply acceleration, which may be a headwind for industrial equities.

Read all the data driving this assessment below:

The Observatory: Industrial Production Monitor

720KB ∙ PDF file

Until next time.

]]><![CDATA[Macro Regime Probabilities]]>https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/macro-regime-probabilities-ffbhttps://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/macro-regime-probabilities-ffbFri, 15 May 2026 16:03:07 GMTAt Prometheus, we are committed to equipping our clients with the most granular, high-frequency, and actionable read of macro conditions in the industry — translated, every day, into systematic signals across global markets. For this whole week, readers will receive signals and research typically reserved exclusively for Prometheus Institutional clients.

This access will include our tracking of fundamental conditions via The Observatory, select signals from the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program, excerpts from The Monitor, and daily updates to our Macro Regime Probabilities. Out of respect for our clients at Prometheus Institutional, we cannot make every part of our work available here for free — but the volume and depth of what we share this week will be substantial.

Our objective in sharing these materials is to give you a glimpse of all the tools available at Prometheus Institutional. For a deeper overview of Prometheus Institutional, read the link below:

Or get in touch by emailing info@prometheus-research.com.

Every day at midday, we share updates to our US Macro Regime Probabilities with Prometheus Institutional, along with our synthesis of what the current regime probabilities suggest.

Our Macro Regime Probabilities use our bottom-up signals across asset markets to construct forward-looking estimates for the cross-asset macro market regime. These signals incorporate both fundamental and price-based information to produce high-frequency, forward-looking estimates for the US cross-asset environment. These signals are best used as a forward-looking guide for the cross-sectional returns across macroeconomic assets. We define the regimes as follows:

(+) G (-) I: Rising Growth & Falling Inflation, Equities Outperform
(+) G (+) I: Rising Growth & Rising Inflation, Commodities Outperform
(-) G (-) I: Falling Growth & Falling Inflation, Treasuries Outperform
(-) G (+) I: Falling Growth & Rising Inflation, TIPs Outperform

Synthesis: Our Macro Regime Probabilities continue to show a dominance of rising growth and inflation probabilities. The regime mix is now biased toward rising growth. This regime mix continues to favor equities and commodities relative to fixed income. This week has materialized significant downside in fixed income. Until we enter a definitive Fed policy cycle, we continue to believe investors should leverage mean reversion to navigate this regime most effectively.

Until next time.

]]><![CDATA[The Monitor]]>https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/the-monitor-533https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/the-monitor-533Fri, 15 May 2026 13:02:38 GMTAt Prometheus, we are committed to equipping our clients with the most granular, high-frequency, and actionable read of macro conditions in the industry — translated, every day, into systematic signals across global markets. For this whole week, readers will receive signals and research typically reserved exclusively for Prometheus Institutional clients.

This access will include our tracking of fundamental conditions via The Observatory, select signals from the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program, excerpts from The Monitor, and daily updates to our Macro Regime Probabilities. Out of respect for our clients at Prometheus Institutional, we cannot make every part of our work available here for free — but the volume and depth of what we share this week will be substantial.

Our objective in sharing these materials is to give you a glimpse of all the tools available at Prometheus Institutional. For a deeper overview of Prometheus Institutional, read the link below:

Or get in touch by emailing info@prometheus-research.com.

The Monitor is how we track and communicate the positioning and reasoning of the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program. Delivered every morning at 8 AM ET, The Monitor contains our fastest reads on macro conditions—daily trackers of growth and inflation, forward-looking macro regime probabilities, global expected returns across assets, short-term regime forecasts for individual markets, and the signals and synthesis from the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program.

A significant portion of The Monitor is dedicated to time-sensitive signals and programs with economic value. Out of respect for the clients of Prometheus Institutional, we cannot make every part of our work available here, but the excerpts below reflect what is most relevant to today’s circumstances.

Read today’s excerpts from The Monitor below:

The Monitor: 5.14.2026

822KB ∙ PDF file

Until next time.

]]><![CDATA[The Observatory: Retail Sales Monitor]]>https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/the-observatory-retail-sales-monitorhttps://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/the-observatory-retail-sales-monitorThu, 14 May 2026 21:01:48 GMTAt Prometheus, we are committed to equipping our clients with the most granular, high-frequency, and actionable read of macro conditions in the industry — translated, every day, into systematic signals across global markets. For this whole week, readers will receive signals and research typically reserved exclusively for Prometheus Institutional clients.

This access will include our tracking of fundamental conditions via The Observatory, select signals from the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program, excerpts from The Monitor, and daily updates to our Macro Regime Probabilities. Out of respect for our clients at Prometheus Institutional, we cannot make every part of our work available here for free — but the volume and depth of what we share this week will be substantial.

Our objective in sharing these materials is to give you a glimpse of all the tools available at Prometheus Institutional. For a deeper overview of Prometheus Institutional, read the link below:

Or get in touch by emailing info@prometheus-research.com. We share our latest note from The Observatory.

The Observatory is our real-time monitoring of the US economy. It offers a regular systematic dissection of virtually every major fundamental macro data set released in the US. We scan the time-series characteristics, sectoral decompositions, macro-cycle implications, and the effects on GDP and inflation of each release, with an understanding of the nuances and specific manipulations required for each data series. The Observatory seeks to paint a moving picture of the economic cycle, print by print.

We share our latest note from The Observatory: Retail Sales Monitor.

Synthesis: The latest retail sales numbers show some of the initial effects of the inflation shock from the spike in oil prices. Gas sales accounted for much of nominal sales; however, after accounting for inflation, our estimates indicate materially negative retail sales. This decline in real retail sales suggests a material step-down in consumer spending.

Read all the data driving this assessment below:

The Observatory: Retail Sales Monitor

385KB ∙ PDF file

Until next time.

]]><![CDATA[Macro Regime Probabilities]]>https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/macro-regime-probabilities-88ehttps://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/macro-regime-probabilities-88eThu, 14 May 2026 16:39:06 GMTAt Prometheus, we are committed to equipping our clients with the most granular, high-frequency, and actionable read of macro conditions in the industry — translated, every day, into systematic signals across global markets. For this whole week, readers will receive signals and research typically reserved exclusively for Prometheus Institutional clients.

This access will include our tracking of fundamental conditions via The Observatory, select signals from the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program, excerpts from The Monitor, and daily updates to our Macro Regime Probabilities. Out of respect for our clients at Prometheus Institutional, we cannot make every part of our work available here for free — but the volume and depth of what we share this week will be substantial.

Our objective in sharing these materials is to give you a glimpse of all the tools available at Prometheus Institutional. For a deeper overview of Prometheus Institutional, read the link below:

Or get in touch by emailing info@prometheus-research.com.

Every day at midday, we share updates to our US Macro Regime Probabilities with Prometheus Institutional, along with our synthesis of what the current regime probabilities suggest.

Our Macro Regime Probabilities use our bottom-up signals across asset markets to construct forward-looking estimates for the cross-asset macro market regime. These signals incorporate both fundamental and price-based information to produce high-frequency, forward-looking estimates for the US cross-asset environment. These signals are best used as a forward-looking guide for the cross-sectional returns across macroeconomic assets. We define the regimes as follows:

(+) G (-) I: Rising Growth & Falling Inflation, Equities Outperform
(+) G (+) I: Rising Growth & Rising Inflation, Commodities Outperform
(-) G (-) I: Falling Growth & Falling Inflation, Treasuries Outperform
(-) G (+) I: Falling Growth & Rising Inflation, TIPs Outperform

Synthesis: Our Macro Regime Probabilities continue to show a dominance of rising growth and inflation probabilities. The regime mix is now biased toward rising growth. This regime mix continues to favor equities and commodities relative to fixed income. Markets continue to reward this exposure mix on a trend basis, despite a modest reversal today.

Until next time.

]]><![CDATA[The Monitor]]>https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/the-monitor-3f1https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/the-monitor-3f1Thu, 14 May 2026 13:02:54 GMTAt Prometheus, we are committed to equipping our clients with the most granular, high-frequency, and actionable read of macro conditions in the industry — translated, every day, into systematic signals across global markets. For this whole week, readers will receive signals and research typically reserved exclusively for Prometheus Institutional clients.

This access will include our tracking of fundamental conditions via The Observatory, select signals from the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program, excerpts from The Monitor, and daily updates to our Macro Regime Probabilities. Out of respect for our clients at Prometheus Institutional, we cannot make every part of our work available here for free — but the volume and depth of what we share this week will be substantial.

Our objective in sharing these materials is to give you a glimpse of all the tools available at Prometheus Institutional. For a deeper overview of Prometheus Institutional, read the link below:

Or get in touch by emailing info@prometheus-research.com.

The Monitor is how we track and communicate the positioning and reasoning of the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program. Delivered every morning at 8 AM ET, The Monitor contains our fastest reads on macro conditions—daily trackers of growth and inflation, forward-looking macro regime probabilities, global expected returns across assets, short-term regime forecasts for individual markets, and the signals and synthesis from the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program.

A significant portion of The Monitor is dedicated to time-sensitive signals and programs with economic value. Out of respect for the clients of Prometheus Institutional, we cannot make every part of our work available here, but the excerpts below reflect what is most relevant to today’s circumstances.

In today’s excerpts from The Monitor, we share some of our signals from BetaMap. If you’re unfamiliar with BetaMap, we recommend checking out our primer:

Read today’s excerpts from The Monitor below:

The Monitor: 5.13.2026

655KB ∙ PDF file

Until next time.

]]><![CDATA[The Observatory: ISM-Manufacturing Monitor]]>https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/the-observatory-ism-manufacturinghttps://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/the-observatory-ism-manufacturingWed, 13 May 2026 21:12:57 GMTAt Prometheus, we are committed to equipping our clients with the most granular, high-frequency, and actionable read of macro conditions in the industry — translated, every day, into systematic signals across global markets. For this whole week, readers will receive signals and research typically reserved exclusively for Prometheus Institutional clients.

This access will include our tracking of fundamental conditions via The Observatory, select signals from the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program, excerpts from The Monitor, and daily updates to our Macro Regime Probabilities. Out of respect for our clients at Prometheus Institutional, we cannot make every part of our work available here for free — but the volume and depth of what we share this week will be substantial.

Our objective in sharing these materials is to give you a glimpse of all the tools available at Prometheus Institutional. For a deeper overview of Prometheus Institutional, read the link below:

Or get in touch by emailing info@prometheus-research.com. We share our latest note from The Observatory.

The Observatory is our real-time monitoring of the US economy. It offers a regular systematic dissection of virtually every major fundamental macro data set released in the US. We scan the time-series characteristics, sectoral decompositions, macro-cycle implications, and the effects on GDP and inflation of each release, with an understanding of the nuances and specific manipulations required for each data series. The Observatory seeks to paint a moving picture of the economic cycle, print by print.

We share our latest note from The Observatory: ISM-Manufacturing Monitor.

Synthesis: The latest ISM manufacturing data points to sustained improvement in the manufacturing sector. ISM internals suggest more strength ahead for the data, though the pass-through to real GDP is modest. We view this data, alongside other manufacturing data, as a continued support for industrial commodities.

Read all the data driving this assessment below:

The Observatory: ISM Manufacturing Monitor

601KB ∙ PDF file

Until next time.

]]><![CDATA[Macro Regime Probabilities]]>https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/macro-regime-probabilities-2b4https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/macro-regime-probabilities-2b4Wed, 13 May 2026 16:20:17 GMTAt Prometheus, we are committed to equipping our clients with the most granular, high-frequency, and actionable read of macro conditions in the industry — translated, every day, into systematic signals across global markets. For this whole week, readers will receive signals and research typically reserved exclusively for Prometheus Institutional clients.

This access will include our tracking of fundamental conditions via The Observatory, select signals from the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program, excerpts from The Monitor, and daily updates to our Macro Regime Probabilities. Out of respect for our clients at Prometheus Institutional, we cannot make every part of our work available here for free — but the volume and depth of what we share this week will be substantial.

Our objective in sharing these materials is to give you a glimpse of all the tools available at Prometheus Institutional. For a deeper overview of Prometheus Institutional, read the link below:

Or get in touch by emailing info@prometheus-research.com.

Every day at midday, we share updates to our US Macro Regime Probabilities with Prometheus Institutional, along with our synthesis of what the current regime probabilities suggest.

Our Macro Regime Probabilities use our bottom-up signals across asset markets to construct forward-looking estimates for the cross-asset macro market regime. These signals incorporate both fundamental and price-based information to produce high-frequency, forward-looking estimates for the US cross-asset environment. These signals are best used as a forward-looking guide for the cross-sectional returns across macroeconomic assets. We define the regimes as follows:

(+) G (-) I: Rising Growth & Falling Inflation, Equities Outperform
(+) G (+) I: Rising Growth & Rising Inflation, Commodities Outperform
(-) G (-) I: Falling Growth & Falling Inflation, Treasuries Outperform
(-) G (+) I: Falling Growth & Rising Inflation, TIPs Outperform

Synthesis: Our Macro Regime Probabilities continue to show a dominance of rising growth and inflation probabilities. The regime mix is now biased toward rising growth. This regime mix continues to favor equities and commodities relative to fixed income.

The latest moves in the macroeconomic landscape have significantly increased our monetary policy pressure gauges. Our monetary policy gauge measures the pressures on the Federal Reserve to move monetary policy, weighing the trade-off between growth and inflation data. The higher our readings, the greater the pressure to hike policy rates. The lower the gauge, the more pressure there is to cut policy rates:

The pressure to hike rates has increased materially.

Until next time.

]]><![CDATA[The Monitor]]>https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/the-monitor-05fhttps://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/the-monitor-05fWed, 13 May 2026 13:03:20 GMTAt Prometheus, we are committed to equipping our clients with the most granular, high-frequency, and actionable read of macro conditions in the industry — translated, every day, into systematic signals across global markets. For this whole week, readers will receive signals and research typically reserved exclusively for Prometheus Institutional clients.

This access will include our tracking of fundamental conditions via The Observatory, select signals from the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program, excerpts from The Monitor, and daily updates to our Macro Regime Probabilities. Out of respect for our clients at Prometheus Institutional, we cannot make every part of our work available here for free — but the volume and depth of what we share this week will be substantial.

Our objective in sharing these materials is to give you a glimpse of all the tools available at Prometheus Institutional. For a deeper overview of Prometheus Institutional, read the link below:

Or get in touch by emailing info@prometheus-research.com.

The Monitor is how we track and communicate the positioning and reasoning of the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program. Delivered every morning at 8 AM ET, The Monitor contains our fastest reads on macro conditions—daily trackers of growth and inflation, forward-looking macro regime probabilities, global expected returns across assets, short-term regime forecasts for individual markets, and the signals and synthesis from the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program.

A significant portion of The Monitor is dedicated to time-sensitive signals and programs with economic value. Out of respect for the clients of Prometheus Institutional, we cannot make every part of our work available here, but the excerpts below reflect what is most relevant to today’s circumstances.

In today’s excerpts from The Monitor, we share the forward-looking expected returns across DM asset markets along with our positions from the Prometheus Expected Return Program. If you’re unfamiliar with our Expected Return Program, we recommend checking out our primer:

Read today’s excerpts from The Monitor below:

The Monitor: 5.12.2026

657KB ∙ PDF file

Until next time.

]]><![CDATA[The Observatory: CPI Inflation Monitor]]>https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/the-observatory-cpi-inflation-monitorhttps://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/the-observatory-cpi-inflation-monitorTue, 12 May 2026 21:06:22 GMTAt Prometheus, we are committed to equipping our clients with the most granular, high-frequency, and actionable read of macro conditions in the industry — translated, every day, into systematic signals across global markets. For this whole week, readers will receive signals and research typically reserved exclusively for Prometheus Institutional clients.

This access will include our tracking of fundamental conditions via The Observatory, select signals from the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program, excerpts from The Monitor, and daily updates to our Macro Regime Probabilities. Out of respect for our clients at Prometheus Institutional, we cannot make every part of our work available here for free — but the volume and depth of what we share this week will be substantial.

Our objective in sharing these materials is to give you a glimpse of all the tools available at Prometheus Institutional. For a deeper overview of Prometheus Institutional, read the link below:

Or get in touch by emailing info@prometheus-research.com. We share our latest note from The Observatory.

The Observatory is our real-time monitoring of the US economy. It offers a regular systematic dissection of virtually every major fundamental macro data set released in the US. We scan the time-series characteristics, sectoral decompositions, macro-cycle implications, and the effects on GDP and inflation of each release, with an understanding of the nuances and specific manipulations required for each data series. The Observatory seeks to paint a moving picture of the economic cycle, print by print.

We share our latest note from The Observatory: CPI Inflation Monitor.

The Observatory: CPI Monitor

615KB ∙ PDF file

Synthesis: The latest CPI data continues to signal inflationary pressures material to both the consumer and relative to the Fed’s 2% inflation target. As expected, energy prices continue to keep CPI readings elevated. However, we have yet to see the pass-through effects of the Strait of Hormuz closure on food products, a pressure that likely remains ahead. These inflationary pressures continue to eat into household incomes and spending and challenge the bond market.

Read all the data driving this assessment below:

]]><![CDATA[Macro Regime Probabilities]]>https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/macro-regime-probabilities-59dhttps://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/macro-regime-probabilities-59dTue, 12 May 2026 16:12:17 GMTAt Prometheus, we are committed to equipping our clients with the most granular, high-frequency, and actionable read of macro conditions in the industry — translated, every day, into systematic signals across global markets. For this whole week, readers will receive signals and research typically reserved exclusively for Prometheus Institutional clients.

This access will include our tracking of fundamental conditions via The Observatory, select signals from the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program, excerpts from The Monitor, and daily updates to our Macro Regime Probabilities. Out of respect for our clients at Prometheus Institutional, we cannot make every part of our work available here for free — but the volume and depth of what we share this week will be substantial.

Our objective in sharing these materials is to give you a glimpse of all the tools available at Prometheus Institutional. For a deeper overview of Prometheus Institutional, read the link below:

Or get in touch by emailing info@prometheus-research.com.

Every day at midday, we share updates to our US Macro Regime Probabilities with Prometheus Institutional, along with our synthesis of what the current regime probabilities suggest.

Our Macro Regime Probabilities use our bottom-up signals across asset markets to construct forward-looking estimates for the cross-asset macro market regime. These signals incorporate both fundamental and price-based information to produce high-frequency, forward-looking estimates for the US cross-asset environment. These signals are best used as a forward-looking guide for the cross-sectional returns across macroeconomic assets. We define the regimes as follows:

(+) G (-) I: Rising Growth & Falling Inflation, Equities Outperform
(+) G (+) I: Rising Growth & Rising Inflation, Commodities Outperform
(-) G (-) I: Falling Growth & Falling Inflation, Treasuries Outperform
(-) G (+) I: Falling Growth & Rising Inflation, TIPs Outperform

Synthesis: Our Macro Regime Probabilities continue to show a dominance of rising growth and inflation probabilities. The regime mix is now biased toward rising growth. This regime mix continues to favor equities and commodities relative to fixed income.

The current regime mix, with (+)G (+) I stable and dominant, is particularly supportive of commodities. Below, we show that periods with (+) G (+I) odds >50% tend to exhibit strong 1-day forward returns for commodities, whereas all other regimes tend to be weaker. We visualize this below:

Until next time.

]]><![CDATA[The Monitor]]>https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/the-monitor-f53https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/the-monitor-f53Tue, 12 May 2026 13:03:49 GMTAt Prometheus, we are committed to equipping our clients with the most granular, high-frequency, and actionable read of macro conditions in the industry — translated, every day, into systematic signals across global markets. For this whole week, readers will receive signals and research typically reserved exclusively for Prometheus Institutional clients.

This access will include our tracking of fundamental conditions via The Observatory, select signals from the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program, excerpts from The Monitor, and daily updates to our Macro Regime Probabilities. Out of respect for our clients at Prometheus Institutional, we cannot make every part of our work available here for free — but the volume and depth of what we share this week will be substantial.

Our objective in sharing these materials is to give you a glimpse of all the tools available at Prometheus Institutional. For a deeper overview of Prometheus Institutional, read the link below:

Or get in touch by emailing info@prometheus-research.com.

The Monitor is how we track and communicate the positioning and reasoning of the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program. Delivered every morning at 8 AM ET, The Monitor contains our fastest reads on macro conditions—daily trackers of growth and inflation, forward-looking macro regime probabilities, global expected returns across assets, short-term regime forecasts for individual markets, and the signals and synthesis from the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program.

A significant portion of The Monitor is dedicated to time-sensitive signals and programs with economic value. Out of respect for the clients of Prometheus Institutional, we cannot make every part of our work available here, but the excerpts below reflect what is most relevant to today’s circumstances.

Read today’s excerpts from The Monitor below:

The Monitor 5.11.2026

778KB ∙ PDF file

Until next time.

]]><![CDATA[The Observatory: Employee Income Monitor]]>https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/the-observatory-employee-income-monitorhttps://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/the-observatory-employee-income-monitorMon, 11 May 2026 20:37:54 GMTAt Prometheus, we are committed to equipping our clients with the most granular, high-frequency, and actionable read of macro conditions in the industry — translated, every day, into systematic signals across global markets. For this whole week, readers will receive signals and research typically reserved exclusively for Prometheus Institutional clients.

This access will include our tracking of fundamental conditions via The Observatory, select signals from the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program, excerpts from The Monitor, and daily updates to our Macro Regime Probabilities. Out of respect for our clients at Prometheus Institutional, we cannot make every part of our work available here for free — but the volume and depth of what we share this week will be substantial.

Our objective in sharing these materials is to give you a glimpse of all the tools available at Prometheus Institutional. For a deeper overview of Prometheus Institutional, read the link below:

Or get in touch by emailing info@prometheus-research.com. We share our latest note from The Observatory.

The Observatory is our real-time monitoring of the US economy. It offers a regular systematic dissection of virtually every major fundamental macro data set released in the US. We scan the time-series characteristics, sectoral decompositions, macro-cycle implications, and the effects on GDP and inflation of each release, with an understanding of the nuances and specific manipulations required for each data series. The Observatory seeks to paint a moving picture of the economic cycle, print by print.

We share our latest note from The Observatory: our Employee Income Monitor.

Synthesis: While aggregate activity remains quite strong, real employee incomes continue to soften. This softness is driven by deteriorating labor market breadth, combined with inflationary pressures eating into real wages. If sustained, the current path of incomes is materially negative.

Read all the data driving this assessment below:

The Observatory, Employee Income

851KB ∙ PDF file

Until next time.

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