<![CDATA[Prometheus Research: Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program]]>

<![CDATA[Prometheus Research: Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program]]>https://www.prometheus-macro.com/s/prometheus-multi-strategy-programhttps://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qmcQ!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa02f9e91-4feb-4772-bfdd-6748b9519fa0_400x400.pngPrometheus Research: Prometheus Multi-Strategy Programhttps://www.prometheus-macro.com/s/prometheus-multi-strategy-programSubstackWed, 20 May 2026 22:09:38 GMT<![CDATA[The Observatory: Industrial Production Monitor]]>https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/the-observatory-industrial-production-989https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/the-observatory-industrial-production-989Fri, 15 May 2026 17:10:45 GMTAt Prometheus, we are committed to equipping our clients with the most granular, high-frequency, and actionable read of macro conditions in the industry — translated, every day, into systematic signals across global markets. For this whole week, readers will receive signals and research typically reserved exclusively for Prometheus Institutional clients.

This access will include our tracking of fundamental conditions via The Observatory, select signals from the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program, excerpts from The Monitor, and daily updates to our Macro Regime Probabilities. Out of respect for our clients at Prometheus Institutional, we cannot make every part of our work available here for free — but the volume and depth of what we share this week will be substantial.

Our objective in sharing these materials is to give you a glimpse of all the tools available at Prometheus Institutional. For a deeper overview of Prometheus Institutional, read the link below:

Or get in touch by emailing info@prometheus-research.com. We share our latest note from The Observatory.

The Observatory is our real-time monitoring of the US economy. It offers a regular systematic dissection of virtually every major fundamental macro data set released in the US. We scan the time-series characteristics, sectoral decompositions, macro-cycle implications, and the effects on GDP and inflation of each release, with an understanding of the nuances and specific manipulations required for each data series. The Observatory seeks to paint a moving picture of the economic cycle, print by print.

We share our latest note from The Observatory: Industrial Production Monitor.

Synthesis: The latest industrial production data continued to show mixed, but nonetheless positive readings. The latest sequential data and the trending breadth continue to skew positive. However, recent momentum has been mixed, weighing on growth. This print suggests continued expansion of the industrial sector, but does not imply acceleration, which may be a headwind for industrial equities.

Read all the data driving this assessment below:

The Observatory: Industrial Production Monitor

720KB ∙ PDF file

Until next time.

]]><![CDATA[Macro Regime Probabilities]]>https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/macro-regime-probabilities-ffbhttps://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/macro-regime-probabilities-ffbFri, 15 May 2026 16:03:07 GMTAt Prometheus, we are committed to equipping our clients with the most granular, high-frequency, and actionable read of macro conditions in the industry — translated, every day, into systematic signals across global markets. For this whole week, readers will receive signals and research typically reserved exclusively for Prometheus Institutional clients.

This access will include our tracking of fundamental conditions via The Observatory, select signals from the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program, excerpts from The Monitor, and daily updates to our Macro Regime Probabilities. Out of respect for our clients at Prometheus Institutional, we cannot make every part of our work available here for free — but the volume and depth of what we share this week will be substantial.

Our objective in sharing these materials is to give you a glimpse of all the tools available at Prometheus Institutional. For a deeper overview of Prometheus Institutional, read the link below:

Or get in touch by emailing info@prometheus-research.com.

Every day at midday, we share updates to our US Macro Regime Probabilities with Prometheus Institutional, along with our synthesis of what the current regime probabilities suggest.

Our Macro Regime Probabilities use our bottom-up signals across asset markets to construct forward-looking estimates for the cross-asset macro market regime. These signals incorporate both fundamental and price-based information to produce high-frequency, forward-looking estimates for the US cross-asset environment. These signals are best used as a forward-looking guide for the cross-sectional returns across macroeconomic assets. We define the regimes as follows:

(+) G (-) I: Rising Growth & Falling Inflation, Equities Outperform
(+) G (+) I: Rising Growth & Rising Inflation, Commodities Outperform
(-) G (-) I: Falling Growth & Falling Inflation, Treasuries Outperform
(-) G (+) I: Falling Growth & Rising Inflation, TIPs Outperform

Synthesis: Our Macro Regime Probabilities continue to show a dominance of rising growth and inflation probabilities. The regime mix is now biased toward rising growth. This regime mix continues to favor equities and commodities relative to fixed income. This week has materialized significant downside in fixed income. Until we enter a definitive Fed policy cycle, we continue to believe investors should leverage mean reversion to navigate this regime most effectively.

Until next time.

]]><![CDATA[The Monitor]]>https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/the-monitor-533https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/the-monitor-533Fri, 15 May 2026 13:02:38 GMTAt Prometheus, we are committed to equipping our clients with the most granular, high-frequency, and actionable read of macro conditions in the industry — translated, every day, into systematic signals across global markets. For this whole week, readers will receive signals and research typically reserved exclusively for Prometheus Institutional clients.

This access will include our tracking of fundamental conditions via The Observatory, select signals from the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program, excerpts from The Monitor, and daily updates to our Macro Regime Probabilities. Out of respect for our clients at Prometheus Institutional, we cannot make every part of our work available here for free — but the volume and depth of what we share this week will be substantial.

Subscribe now

Our objective in sharing these materials is to give you a glimpse of all the tools available at Prometheus Institutional. For a deeper overview of Prometheus Institutional, read the link below:

Or get in touch by emailing info@prometheus-research.com.

The Monitor is how we track and communicate the positioning and reasoning of the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program. Delivered every morning at 8 AM ET, The Monitor contains our fastest reads on macro conditions—daily trackers of growth and inflation, forward-looking macro regime probabilities, global expected returns across assets, short-term regime forecasts for individual markets, and the signals and synthesis from the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program.

A significant portion of The Monitor is dedicated to time-sensitive signals and programs with economic value. Out of respect for the clients of Prometheus Institutional, we cannot make every part of our work available here, but the excerpts below reflect what is most relevant to today’s circumstances.

Read today’s excerpts from The Monitor below:

The Monitor: 5.14.2026

822KB ∙ PDF file

Until next time.

]]><![CDATA[The Observatory: Retail Sales Monitor]]>https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/the-observatory-retail-sales-monitorhttps://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/the-observatory-retail-sales-monitorThu, 14 May 2026 21:01:48 GMTAt Prometheus, we are committed to equipping our clients with the most granular, high-frequency, and actionable read of macro conditions in the industry — translated, every day, into systematic signals across global markets. For this whole week, readers will receive signals and research typically reserved exclusively for Prometheus Institutional clients.

This access will include our tracking of fundamental conditions via The Observatory, select signals from the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program, excerpts from The Monitor, and daily updates to our Macro Regime Probabilities. Out of respect for our clients at Prometheus Institutional, we cannot make every part of our work available here for free — but the volume and depth of what we share this week will be substantial.

Our objective in sharing these materials is to give you a glimpse of all the tools available at Prometheus Institutional. For a deeper overview of Prometheus Institutional, read the link below:

Or get in touch by emailing info@prometheus-research.com. We share our latest note from The Observatory.

The Observatory is our real-time monitoring of the US economy. It offers a regular systematic dissection of virtually every major fundamental macro data set released in the US. We scan the time-series characteristics, sectoral decompositions, macro-cycle implications, and the effects on GDP and inflation of each release, with an understanding of the nuances and specific manipulations required for each data series. The Observatory seeks to paint a moving picture of the economic cycle, print by print.

We share our latest note from The Observatory: Retail Sales Monitor.

Synthesis: The latest retail sales numbers show some of the initial effects of the inflation shock from the spike in oil prices. Gas sales accounted for much of nominal sales; however, after accounting for inflation, our estimates indicate materially negative retail sales. This decline in real retail sales suggests a material step-down in consumer spending.

Read all the data driving this assessment below:

The Observatory: Retail Sales Monitor

385KB ∙ PDF file

Until next time.

]]><![CDATA[Macro Regime Probabilities]]>https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/macro-regime-probabilities-88ehttps://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/macro-regime-probabilities-88eThu, 14 May 2026 16:39:06 GMTAt Prometheus, we are committed to equipping our clients with the most granular, high-frequency, and actionable read of macro conditions in the industry — translated, every day, into systematic signals across global markets. For this whole week, readers will receive signals and research typically reserved exclusively for Prometheus Institutional clients.

This access will include our tracking of fundamental conditions via The Observatory, select signals from the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program, excerpts from The Monitor, and daily updates to our Macro Regime Probabilities. Out of respect for our clients at Prometheus Institutional, we cannot make every part of our work available here for free — but the volume and depth of what we share this week will be substantial.

Subscribe now

Our objective in sharing these materials is to give you a glimpse of all the tools available at Prometheus Institutional. For a deeper overview of Prometheus Institutional, read the link below:

Or get in touch by emailing info@prometheus-research.com.

Every day at midday, we share updates to our US Macro Regime Probabilities with Prometheus Institutional, along with our synthesis of what the current regime probabilities suggest.

Our Macro Regime Probabilities use our bottom-up signals across asset markets to construct forward-looking estimates for the cross-asset macro market regime. These signals incorporate both fundamental and price-based information to produce high-frequency, forward-looking estimates for the US cross-asset environment. These signals are best used as a forward-looking guide for the cross-sectional returns across macroeconomic assets. We define the regimes as follows:

(+) G (-) I: Rising Growth & Falling Inflation, Equities Outperform
(+) G (+) I: Rising Growth & Rising Inflation, Commodities Outperform
(-) G (-) I: Falling Growth & Falling Inflation, Treasuries Outperform
(-) G (+) I: Falling Growth & Rising Inflation, TIPs Outperform

Synthesis: Our Macro Regime Probabilities continue to show a dominance of rising growth and inflation probabilities. The regime mix is now biased toward rising growth. This regime mix continues to favor equities and commodities relative to fixed income. Markets continue to reward this exposure mix on a trend basis, despite a modest reversal today.

Until next time.

]]><![CDATA[The Monitor]]>https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/the-monitor-3f1https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/the-monitor-3f1Thu, 14 May 2026 13:02:54 GMTAt Prometheus, we are committed to equipping our clients with the most granular, high-frequency, and actionable read of macro conditions in the industry — translated, every day, into systematic signals across global markets. For this whole week, readers will receive signals and research typically reserved exclusively for Prometheus Institutional clients.

This access will include our tracking of fundamental conditions via The Observatory, select signals from the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program, excerpts from The Monitor, and daily updates to our Macro Regime Probabilities. Out of respect for our clients at Prometheus Institutional, we cannot make every part of our work available here for free — but the volume and depth of what we share this week will be substantial.

Our objective in sharing these materials is to give you a glimpse of all the tools available at Prometheus Institutional. For a deeper overview of Prometheus Institutional, read the link below:

Or get in touch by emailing info@prometheus-research.com.

The Monitor is how we track and communicate the positioning and reasoning of the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program. Delivered every morning at 8 AM ET, The Monitor contains our fastest reads on macro conditions—daily trackers of growth and inflation, forward-looking macro regime probabilities, global expected returns across assets, short-term regime forecasts for individual markets, and the signals and synthesis from the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program.

A significant portion of The Monitor is dedicated to time-sensitive signals and programs with economic value. Out of respect for the clients of Prometheus Institutional, we cannot make every part of our work available here, but the excerpts below reflect what is most relevant to today’s circumstances.

In today’s excerpts from The Monitor, we share some of our signals from BetaMap. If you’re unfamiliar with BetaMap, we recommend checking out our primer:

Read today’s excerpts from The Monitor below:

The Monitor: 5.13.2026

655KB ∙ PDF file

Until next time.

]]><![CDATA[The Observatory: ISM-Manufacturing Monitor]]>https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/the-observatory-ism-manufacturinghttps://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/the-observatory-ism-manufacturingWed, 13 May 2026 21:12:57 GMTAt Prometheus, we are committed to equipping our clients with the most granular, high-frequency, and actionable read of macro conditions in the industry — translated, every day, into systematic signals across global markets. For this whole week, readers will receive signals and research typically reserved exclusively for Prometheus Institutional clients.

This access will include our tracking of fundamental conditions via The Observatory, select signals from the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program, excerpts from The Monitor, and daily updates to our Macro Regime Probabilities. Out of respect for our clients at Prometheus Institutional, we cannot make every part of our work available here for free — but the volume and depth of what we share this week will be substantial.

Our objective in sharing these materials is to give you a glimpse of all the tools available at Prometheus Institutional. For a deeper overview of Prometheus Institutional, read the link below:

Or get in touch by emailing info@prometheus-research.com. We share our latest note from The Observatory.

The Observatory is our real-time monitoring of the US economy. It offers a regular systematic dissection of virtually every major fundamental macro data set released in the US. We scan the time-series characteristics, sectoral decompositions, macro-cycle implications, and the effects on GDP and inflation of each release, with an understanding of the nuances and specific manipulations required for each data series. The Observatory seeks to paint a moving picture of the economic cycle, print by print.

We share our latest note from The Observatory: ISM-Manufacturing Monitor.

Synthesis: The latest ISM manufacturing data points to sustained improvement in the manufacturing sector. ISM internals suggest more strength ahead for the data, though the pass-through to real GDP is modest. We view this data, alongside other manufacturing data, as a continued support for industrial commodities.

Read all the data driving this assessment below:

The Observatory: ISM Manufacturing Monitor

601KB ∙ PDF file

Until next time.

]]><![CDATA[Macro Regime Probabilities]]>https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/macro-regime-probabilities-2b4https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/macro-regime-probabilities-2b4Wed, 13 May 2026 16:20:17 GMTAt Prometheus, we are committed to equipping our clients with the most granular, high-frequency, and actionable read of macro conditions in the industry — translated, every day, into systematic signals across global markets. For this whole week, readers will receive signals and research typically reserved exclusively for Prometheus Institutional clients.

This access will include our tracking of fundamental conditions via The Observatory, select signals from the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program, excerpts from The Monitor, and daily updates to our Macro Regime Probabilities. Out of respect for our clients at Prometheus Institutional, we cannot make every part of our work available here for free — but the volume and depth of what we share this week will be substantial.

Our objective in sharing these materials is to give you a glimpse of all the tools available at Prometheus Institutional. For a deeper overview of Prometheus Institutional, read the link below:

Or get in touch by emailing info@prometheus-research.com.

Every day at midday, we share updates to our US Macro Regime Probabilities with Prometheus Institutional, along with our synthesis of what the current regime probabilities suggest.

Our Macro Regime Probabilities use our bottom-up signals across asset markets to construct forward-looking estimates for the cross-asset macro market regime. These signals incorporate both fundamental and price-based information to produce high-frequency, forward-looking estimates for the US cross-asset environment. These signals are best used as a forward-looking guide for the cross-sectional returns across macroeconomic assets. We define the regimes as follows:

(+) G (-) I: Rising Growth & Falling Inflation, Equities Outperform
(+) G (+) I: Rising Growth & Rising Inflation, Commodities Outperform
(-) G (-) I: Falling Growth & Falling Inflation, Treasuries Outperform
(-) G (+) I: Falling Growth & Rising Inflation, TIPs Outperform

Synthesis: Our Macro Regime Probabilities continue to show a dominance of rising growth and inflation probabilities. The regime mix is now biased toward rising growth. This regime mix continues to favor equities and commodities relative to fixed income.

The latest moves in the macroeconomic landscape have significantly increased our monetary policy pressure gauges. Our monetary policy gauge measures the pressures on the Federal Reserve to move monetary policy, weighing the trade-off between growth and inflation data. The higher our readings, the greater the pressure to hike policy rates. The lower the gauge, the more pressure there is to cut policy rates:

The pressure to hike rates has increased materially.

Until next time.

]]><![CDATA[The Monitor]]>https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/the-monitor-05fhttps://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/the-monitor-05fWed, 13 May 2026 13:03:20 GMTAt Prometheus, we are committed to equipping our clients with the most granular, high-frequency, and actionable read of macro conditions in the industry — translated, every day, into systematic signals across global markets. For this whole week, readers will receive signals and research typically reserved exclusively for Prometheus Institutional clients.

This access will include our tracking of fundamental conditions via The Observatory, select signals from the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program, excerpts from The Monitor, and daily updates to our Macro Regime Probabilities. Out of respect for our clients at Prometheus Institutional, we cannot make every part of our work available here for free — but the volume and depth of what we share this week will be substantial.

Subscribe now

Our objective in sharing these materials is to give you a glimpse of all the tools available at Prometheus Institutional. For a deeper overview of Prometheus Institutional, read the link below:

Or get in touch by emailing info@prometheus-research.com.

The Monitor is how we track and communicate the positioning and reasoning of the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program. Delivered every morning at 8 AM ET, The Monitor contains our fastest reads on macro conditions—daily trackers of growth and inflation, forward-looking macro regime probabilities, global expected returns across assets, short-term regime forecasts for individual markets, and the signals and synthesis from the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program.

A significant portion of The Monitor is dedicated to time-sensitive signals and programs with economic value. Out of respect for the clients of Prometheus Institutional, we cannot make every part of our work available here, but the excerpts below reflect what is most relevant to today’s circumstances.

In today’s excerpts from The Monitor, we share the forward-looking expected returns across DM asset markets along with our positions from the Prometheus Expected Return Program. If you’re unfamiliar with our Expected Return Program, we recommend checking out our primer:

Read today’s excerpts from The Monitor below:

The Monitor: 5.12.2026

657KB ∙ PDF file

Until next time.

]]><![CDATA[The Observatory: CPI Inflation Monitor]]>https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/the-observatory-cpi-inflation-monitorhttps://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/the-observatory-cpi-inflation-monitorTue, 12 May 2026 21:06:22 GMTAt Prometheus, we are committed to equipping our clients with the most granular, high-frequency, and actionable read of macro conditions in the industry — translated, every day, into systematic signals across global markets. For this whole week, readers will receive signals and research typically reserved exclusively for Prometheus Institutional clients.

This access will include our tracking of fundamental conditions via The Observatory, select signals from the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program, excerpts from The Monitor, and daily updates to our Macro Regime Probabilities. Out of respect for our clients at Prometheus Institutional, we cannot make every part of our work available here for free — but the volume and depth of what we share this week will be substantial.

Our objective in sharing these materials is to give you a glimpse of all the tools available at Prometheus Institutional. For a deeper overview of Prometheus Institutional, read the link below:

Or get in touch by emailing info@prometheus-research.com. We share our latest note from The Observatory.

The Observatory is our real-time monitoring of the US economy. It offers a regular systematic dissection of virtually every major fundamental macro data set released in the US. We scan the time-series characteristics, sectoral decompositions, macro-cycle implications, and the effects on GDP and inflation of each release, with an understanding of the nuances and specific manipulations required for each data series. The Observatory seeks to paint a moving picture of the economic cycle, print by print.

We share our latest note from The Observatory: CPI Inflation Monitor.

The Observatory: CPI Monitor

615KB ∙ PDF file

Synthesis: The latest CPI data continues to signal inflationary pressures material to both the consumer and relative to the Fed’s 2% inflation target. As expected, energy prices continue to keep CPI readings elevated. However, we have yet to see the pass-through effects of the Strait of Hormuz closure on food products, a pressure that likely remains ahead. These inflationary pressures continue to eat into household incomes and spending and challenge the bond market.

Read all the data driving this assessment below:

]]><![CDATA[Macro Regime Probabilities]]>https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/macro-regime-probabilities-59dhttps://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/macro-regime-probabilities-59dTue, 12 May 2026 16:12:17 GMTAt Prometheus, we are committed to equipping our clients with the most granular, high-frequency, and actionable read of macro conditions in the industry — translated, every day, into systematic signals across global markets. For this whole week, readers will receive signals and research typically reserved exclusively for Prometheus Institutional clients.

This access will include our tracking of fundamental conditions via The Observatory, select signals from the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program, excerpts from The Monitor, and daily updates to our Macro Regime Probabilities. Out of respect for our clients at Prometheus Institutional, we cannot make every part of our work available here for free — but the volume and depth of what we share this week will be substantial.

Our objective in sharing these materials is to give you a glimpse of all the tools available at Prometheus Institutional. For a deeper overview of Prometheus Institutional, read the link below:

Or get in touch by emailing info@prometheus-research.com.

Every day at midday, we share updates to our US Macro Regime Probabilities with Prometheus Institutional, along with our synthesis of what the current regime probabilities suggest.

Our Macro Regime Probabilities use our bottom-up signals across asset markets to construct forward-looking estimates for the cross-asset macro market regime. These signals incorporate both fundamental and price-based information to produce high-frequency, forward-looking estimates for the US cross-asset environment. These signals are best used as a forward-looking guide for the cross-sectional returns across macroeconomic assets. We define the regimes as follows:

(+) G (-) I: Rising Growth & Falling Inflation, Equities Outperform
(+) G (+) I: Rising Growth & Rising Inflation, Commodities Outperform
(-) G (-) I: Falling Growth & Falling Inflation, Treasuries Outperform
(-) G (+) I: Falling Growth & Rising Inflation, TIPs Outperform

Synthesis: Our Macro Regime Probabilities continue to show a dominance of rising growth and inflation probabilities. The regime mix is now biased toward rising growth. This regime mix continues to favor equities and commodities relative to fixed income.

The current regime mix, with (+)G (+) I stable and dominant, is particularly supportive of commodities. Below, we show that periods with (+) G (+I) odds >50% tend to exhibit strong 1-day forward returns for commodities, whereas all other regimes tend to be weaker. We visualize this below:

Until next time.

]]><![CDATA[The Monitor]]>https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/the-monitor-f53https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/the-monitor-f53Tue, 12 May 2026 13:03:49 GMTAt Prometheus, we are committed to equipping our clients with the most granular, high-frequency, and actionable read of macro conditions in the industry — translated, every day, into systematic signals across global markets. For this whole week, readers will receive signals and research typically reserved exclusively for Prometheus Institutional clients.

This access will include our tracking of fundamental conditions via The Observatory, select signals from the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program, excerpts from The Monitor, and daily updates to our Macro Regime Probabilities. Out of respect for our clients at Prometheus Institutional, we cannot make every part of our work available here for free — but the volume and depth of what we share this week will be substantial.

Subscribe now

Our objective in sharing these materials is to give you a glimpse of all the tools available at Prometheus Institutional. For a deeper overview of Prometheus Institutional, read the link below:

Or get in touch by emailing info@prometheus-research.com.

The Monitor is how we track and communicate the positioning and reasoning of the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program. Delivered every morning at 8 AM ET, The Monitor contains our fastest reads on macro conditions—daily trackers of growth and inflation, forward-looking macro regime probabilities, global expected returns across assets, short-term regime forecasts for individual markets, and the signals and synthesis from the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program.

A significant portion of The Monitor is dedicated to time-sensitive signals and programs with economic value. Out of respect for the clients of Prometheus Institutional, we cannot make every part of our work available here, but the excerpts below reflect what is most relevant to today’s circumstances.

Read today’s excerpts from The Monitor below:

The Monitor 5.11.2026

778KB ∙ PDF file

Until next time.

]]><![CDATA[The Observatory: Employee Income Monitor]]>https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/the-observatory-employee-income-monitorhttps://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/the-observatory-employee-income-monitorMon, 11 May 2026 20:37:54 GMTAt Prometheus, we are committed to equipping our clients with the most granular, high-frequency, and actionable read of macro conditions in the industry — translated, every day, into systematic signals across global markets. For this whole week, readers will receive signals and research typically reserved exclusively for Prometheus Institutional clients.

This access will include our tracking of fundamental conditions via The Observatory, select signals from the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program, excerpts from The Monitor, and daily updates to our Macro Regime Probabilities. Out of respect for our clients at Prometheus Institutional, we cannot make every part of our work available here for free — but the volume and depth of what we share this week will be substantial.

Our objective in sharing these materials is to give you a glimpse of all the tools available at Prometheus Institutional. For a deeper overview of Prometheus Institutional, read the link below:

Or get in touch by emailing info@prometheus-research.com. We share our latest note from The Observatory.

The Observatory is our real-time monitoring of the US economy. It offers a regular systematic dissection of virtually every major fundamental macro data set released in the US. We scan the time-series characteristics, sectoral decompositions, macro-cycle implications, and the effects on GDP and inflation of each release, with an understanding of the nuances and specific manipulations required for each data series. The Observatory seeks to paint a moving picture of the economic cycle, print by print.

We share our latest note from The Observatory: our Employee Income Monitor.

Synthesis: While aggregate activity remains quite strong, real employee incomes continue to soften. This softness is driven by deteriorating labor market breadth, combined with inflationary pressures eating into real wages. If sustained, the current path of incomes is materially negative.

Read all the data driving this assessment below:

The Observatory, Employee Income

851KB ∙ PDF file

Until next time.

]]><![CDATA[Macro Regime Probabilities]]>https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/macro-regime-probabilitieshttps://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/macro-regime-probabilitiesMon, 11 May 2026 16:45:35 GMTAt Prometheus, we are committed to equipping our clients with the most granular, high-frequency, and actionable read of macro conditions in the industry — translated, every day, into systematic signals across global markets. For this whole week, readers will receive signals and research typically reserved exclusively for Prometheus Institutional clients.

This access will include our tracking of fundamental conditions via The Observatory, select signals from the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program, excerpts from The Monitor, and daily updates to our Macro Regime Probabilities. Out of respect for our clients at Prometheus Institutional, we cannot make every part of our work available here for free — but the volume and depth of what we share this week will be substantial.

Our objective in sharing these materials is to give you a glimpse of all the tools available at Prometheus Institutional. For a deeper overview of Prometheus Institutional, read the link below:

Or get in touch by emailing info@prometheus-research.com.

Every day at midday, we share updates to our US Macro Regime Probabilities with Prometheus Institutional, along with our synthesis of what the current regime probabilities suggest.

Our Macro Regime Probabilities use our bottom-up signals across asset markets to construct forward-looking estimates for the cross-asset macro market regime. These signals incorporate both fundamental and price-based information to produce high-frequency, forward-looking estimates for the US cross-asset environment. These signals are best used as a forward-looking guide for the cross-sectional returns across macroeconomic assets. We define the regimes as follows:

(+) G (-) I: Rising Growth & Falling Inflation, Equities Outperform
(+) G (+) I: Rising Growth & Rising Inflation, Commodities Outperform
(-) G (-) I: Falling Growth & Falling Inflation, Treasuries Outperform
(-) G (+) I: Falling Growth & Rising Inflation, TIPs Outperform

Synthesis: Our Macro Regime Probabilities continue to show a dominance of rising growth and inflation probabilities. The regime mix is now biased toward rising growth. This regime mix continues to favor equities and commodities relative to fixed income.

Until next time.

]]><![CDATA[The Monitor]]>https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/the-monitorhttps://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/the-monitorMon, 11 May 2026 13:03:16 GMTAt Prometheus, we are committed to equipping our clients with the most granular, high-frequency, and actionable read of macro conditions in the industry — translated, every day, into systematic signals across global markets. For this whole week, readers will receive signals and research typically reserved exclusively for Prometheus Institutional clients.

This access will include our tracking of fundamental conditions via The Observatory, select signals from the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program, excerpts from The Monitor, and daily updates to our Macro Regime Probabilities. Out of respect for our clients at Prometheus Institutional, we cannot make every part of our work available here for free — but the volume and depth of what we share this week will be substantial.

Our objective in sharing these materials is to give you a glimpse of all the tools available at Prometheus Institutional. For a deeper overview of Prometheus Institutional, read the link below:

Or get in touch by emailing info@prometheus-research.com.

The Monitor is how we track and communicate the positioning and reasoning of the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program. Delivered every morning at 8 AM ET, The Monitor contains our fastest reads on macro conditions—daily trackers of growth and inflation, forward-looking macro regime probabilities, global expected returns across assets, short-term regime forecasts for individual markets, and the signals and synthesis from the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program.

A significant portion of The Monitor is dedicated to time-sensitive signals and programs with economic value. Out of respect for the clients of Prometheus Institutional, we cannot make every part of our work available here, but the excerpts below reflect what is most relevant to today's circumstances. Read today’s excerpts from The Monitor below:

Read the complete note below:

The Monitor (5.10.2026)

464KB ∙ PDF file

Until next time.

]]><![CDATA[Prometheus Institutional: All-Access Week ]]>https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/prometheus-institutional-all-accesshttps://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/prometheus-institutional-all-accessSun, 10 May 2026 23:41:57 GMTAt Prometheus, we are committed to equipping our clients with the most granular, high-frequency, and actionable read of macro conditions in the industry — translated, every day, into systematic signals across global markets. For this whole week, readers will receive signals and research typically reserved exclusively for Prometheus Institutional clients.

This access will include our tracking of fundamental conditions via The Observatory, select signals from the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program, excerpts from The Monitor, and daily updates to our Macro Regime Probabilities. Out of respect for our clients at Prometheus Institutional, we cannot make every part of our work available here for free — but the volume and depth of what we share this week will be substantial.

Subscribe now

Our objective in sharing these materials is to give you a glimpse of all the tools available at Prometheus Institutional. For a deeper overview of Prometheus Institutional, read the link below:

Or get in touch by emailing info@prometheus-research.com.

Let’s kick off All-Access Week with our Week Ahead note from the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program:

Find the complete note attached below:

Prometheus Week Ahead (5.10.2026)

1020KB ∙ PDF file

Until next time.

]]><![CDATA[Prometheus Institutional]]>https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/prometheus-institutional-ea3https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/prometheus-institutional-ea3Wed, 06 May 2026 03:24:35 GMT

Prometheus is built on deep fundamental research into how the economy works. We have built a rigorous, systematic process for tracking virtually every major data point released in the US economy. That tracking of economic conditions is coupled with a study of macro markets and investment strategies over hundreds of years and dozens of countries, to create systematic investment programs.

Alongside this systematic process, we have created rigorous, consistent, and high-frequency reporting on its evolution. This is our primary value offer to professional investors: an ever-evolving, forward-looking, signal-based view of the global macroeconomic landscape. This comprehensive offering is streamlined into a format that is readily digestible for CIOs and PMs. Our research is communicated via the following channels:

Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program: Our primary offering to institutional investors. The program systematically trades 47 global markets daily. The Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program applies a bottom-up approach to markets, leveraging our macroeconomic understanding of individual markets to create a variety of strategies. Our programs span US equity sectors, global equity indexes, global sovereign bond markets, the energy complex, industrial metals, and volatility. Our programs, positions, and signals are delivered every day in machine-readable form.
The Monitor: The Monitor is how we track and communicate the positioning and reasoning of the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program. Delivered every morning at 8 AM ET, The Monitor contains our fastest reads on macro conditions—daily trackers of growth and inflation, forward-looking macro regime probabilities, global expected returns across assets, short-term regime forecasts for individual markets, and the signals and synthesis from the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program.
The Observatory: Our real-time monitoring of the US economy. It offers a regular systematic dissection of virtually every major fundamental macro data set released in the US. We scan the time-series characteristics, sectoral decompositions, macro-cycle implications, and the effects on GDP and inflation of each release, with an understanding of the nuances and specific manipulations required for each data series. The Observatory seeks to paint a moving picture of the economic cycle, print by print.
Thematic Notes: Our process is built on constant iteration and investigation. Much of this iteration is predicated on the constant search for tools to navigate the current or future macro regime optimally. This search leads us through a wide variety of research, which we communicate through various formats. This can range from thought pieces on the current macro backdrop, which we call Macro Mechanics, to highly specialized regime-based trading signals for a particular asset class, to a methodological primer for a new systematic strategy. The objective of these notes is to bring novel ideas—whether in terms of conceptual frameworks, data-driven fundamental assessments, or new systematic signals —to help navigate the current macro circumstance.

Who We Serve

Prometheus Institutional serves some of the largest institutions worldwide, ranging from top-tier multi-strategy hedge funds to sovereign and corporate pensions and asset managers. Our clients integrate Prometheus into their work as a systematic, independently-derived view of the macro environment, translated directly into investable programs. Prometheus Institutional offers clients a clear, continuously evolving understanding of the macroeconomic landscape and the investment opportunities within it.

To inquire about access, email us at info@prometheus-research.com.

]]><![CDATA[Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program]]>https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/prometheus-multi-strategy-program-0fbhttps://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/prometheus-multi-strategy-program-0fbMon, 04 May 2026 00:14:25 GMTThe Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program is our primary offering to institutional investors. The Monitor is how we track and communicate the positioning and reasoning of the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program. The program systematically trades in 47 global markets daily.

To complement our existing offering for individual investors, we offer excerpts and insights from The Monitor. If you are a professional investor and would like access to our real-time signals and analysis, email us at info@prometheus-research.com for more information.

Our observations are as follows:

The latest readings across our gauges of economic activity continue to suggest a strong nominal growth backdrop.
The inflation shock to the CPI remains elevated, and the rate of change remains downward.
Our macro market regime probabilities now show a dominance of a (+) G (+) I regime. Inflationary conditions persist in markets— but now with a rising growth bias.

While macro conditions continue to favor a pro-cyclical allocation, the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program remains cautious about its equity exposures due to macro-mispricing risks. We scan through our macro monitors before diving into this thread.

We show our timely NGDP readings:

Next, we show our daily CPI estimates:

Further, we show our forward-looking market regime probabilities:

]]><![CDATA[Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program]]>https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/prometheus-multi-strategy-program-f31https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/prometheus-multi-strategy-program-f31Sun, 26 Apr 2026 17:59:05 GMTThe Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program is our primary offering to institutional investors. The Monitor is how we track and communicate the positioning and reasoning of the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program. The program systematically trades in 47 global markets daily.

To complement our existing offering for individual investors, we offer excerpts and insights from The Monitor. If you are a professional investor and would like access to our real-time signals and analysis, email us at info@prometheus-research.com for more information.

Our observations are as follows:

The latest readings across our gauges of economic activity continue to suggest an extremely strong nominal growth backdrop.
The inflation shock to the CPI remains elevated, and the rate of change remains downward.
Our macro market regime probabilities are back to favoring inflationary regimes— now with a rising growth bias.

Amid this backdrop, the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program is now running with a much more neutral risk profile across assets—seeking to catch a rally in US fixed income while maintaining a more neutral bias across global asset markets. This portfolio exposure is technical rather than fundamental, and the positions may unwind quickly. While the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program is not actively deploying significant risk right now, our process shows evolving opportunities in the commodity landscape. We scan through our macro monitors before diving into this thread.

We show that our timely NGDP readings have remained stable through April:

While our CPI estimates continue to decelerate from their recent peak:

Further, we show how our forward-looking market regime probabilities have shown a transition back to inflationary conditions:

Despite these inflationary-regime expectations, the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program remains cautious due to regime volatility and potential instability. We show the current positioning of the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program below:

While Prometheus Multi-Strategy is not currently deploying material directional risk exposure, we see two avenues for future signal strength. First, we see a positive backdrop for the oil complex, particularly for back-dated contracts. While our short-term signals for the energy complex have turned neutral since April 8, we are starting to see some shifts in the dynamics underlying price action— becoming more conducive to oil beta. Principally, energy markets are composed of two participants: speculators and hedgers. Speculators seek financial gain through their exposure to commodity futures. Hedgers, on the other hand, seek insurance against future revenue volatility. While hedgers seek to minimize hedging costs, they are not profit-seeking in futures markets. This relative near-term price-insensitivity makes their flow mechanical and more consistent in markets. As such, hedgers are a countercyclical force in markets— pushing down prices relative to their fair value as commodities rise due to shortages. This creates a conducive backdrop for owning energy futures beta. Below, we show how our positioning regime monitor allows us to classify periods into those where speculators are dominant versus those where hedgers are dominant:

While our systematic classification still shows a speculative-dominant market, the numbers under the hood are quite evenly matched; i.e., there is a large hedging presence in markets today as well. Further, we see potential for us to transition into a hedging-dominant market as speculators unwind their positions. While not an optimal backdrop for the energy complex, it is nonetheless a positive one. However, our short-term signals for oil continue to show pressure on spot prices:

As such, the best expression for long energy exposures, which we continue to believe tactically necessary in this backdrop, is via back-dated contracts (6 months and further). The Prometheus Expected Return Program has benefited from these exact types of exposures year-to-date:

Tactical exposure to energy, with strong risk management, remains the best way to protect and compound portfolios during this regime. The latest developments indicate that the opportunities have shifted from the front of the curve to the back.

Until next time.

]]><![CDATA[Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program]]>https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/prometheus-multi-strategy-program-e70https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/prometheus-multi-strategy-program-e70Sun, 19 Apr 2026 13:03:20 GMTThe Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program is our primary offering to institutional investors. The Monitor is how we track and communicate the positioning and reasoning of the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program. The program systematically trades in 47 global markets daily.

To complement our existing offering for individual investors, we offer excerpts and insights from The Monitor. If you are a professional investor and would like access to our real-time signals and analysis, email us at info@prometheus-research.com for more information.

Our observations are as follows:

Our fastest measures of economic activity suggest that NGDP remains elevated and resilient, despite weakness in equity markets. This is to be expected as the economic effects of an inflation shock require both significant and prolonged inflation to materially impact spending and output.
The inflation shock to CPI remains elevated, but the rate of change has begun to turn downward.
Macro markets have priced a regime shift, with our macro regime probabilities for inflation collapsing.

While the inflationary effects of the run-up in oil prices will continue to have a material impact on the economy and markets, it is essential to recognize that a marginal shift in oil shortages currently priced into markets will result in a short-term disinflationary market regime. As such, the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program, after running at maximum risk in tactical long-energy exposures, is now changing its risk profile, materially reducing its exposure to

]]>