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The Prometheus S&P 500 Program aims to outperform the S&P 500 over a full investment cycle. The program will strive to achieve this objective by leveraging a combination of Sector Selection, Beta Timing, Active Overlays, and Dynamic Risk Control. Our S&P 500 Program can be integrated with our Crisis Protection Program, which seeks to offer a portfolio diversifier during periods of economic and financial instability by blending active, long-only exposure to Gold, TIPS, and VIX.

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For context, we visualize the live returns for our Integrated Program below:

Our programs are operating in line with their long-term expectations. To today’s note, which we will publish in “positions-only” format.

Read more

Subscribe now

For context, we visualize the live returns for our Integrated Program below:

Our programs are operating in line with their long-term expectations. To today’s note, which we will publish in “positions-only” format.

Today, the S&P 500 Program is positioned as follows:

There are four major takeaways from these positions:

• Beta Timing: Our beta timing measures continue to show downward pressure on equity indexes coming from locally expensive equities, which are in a downtrend.

• Sector Selection: Macro markets are experiencing a sustained inflation shock, which will change the distribution of sector returns. Within the cross-section of equity sectors, our signals have moved to favour energy and builders. This signal is in its early days and does run a modest risk of reversal.

• Risk Control: Our risk control continues to guide us effectively in managing drawdowns. In a multi-standard deviation event across all our positions, our expected drawdown is 8%.

• Bond Overlay: While we face an ongoing inflation shock in market pricing, fundamental conditions are beginning to align more with a weakening growth backdrop. This weakness of growth, coupled with a modestly positive yield curve, makes treasuries and amenable exposure within a portfolio. This positioning is primarily about carry and diversification during a growth slowdown, rather than an outright alpha view.

These portfolio levers, in aggregate, create an allocation mix with a modest sector-selection bias towards rising inflation and a macro bias towards falling growth.

To this allocation, we add our Crisis Protection Program.

Read more

Subscribe now

For context, we visualize the live returns for our Integrated Program below:

Our programs are operating in line with their long-term expectations. To today’s note, which we will publish in “positions-only” format.

Today, the S&P 500 Program is positioned as follows:

There are four major takeaways from these positions:

• Beta Timing: Our beta timing measures continue to show downward pressure on equity indexes coming from locally expensive equities, which are in a downtrend.

• Sector Selection: Macro markets are experiencing a sustained inflation shock, which will change the distribution of sector returns. Within the cross-section of equity sectors, our signals have moved to favour energy and builders. This signal is in its early days and does run a modest risk of reversal.

• Risk Control: Our risk control continues to guide us effectively in managing drawdowns. In a multi-standard deviation event across all our positions, our expected drawdown is 8%.

• Bond Overlay: While we face an ongoing inflation shock in market pricing, fundamental conditions are beginning to align more with a weakening growth backdrop. This weakness of growth, coupled with a modestly positive yield curve, makes treasuries and amenable exposure within a portfolio. This positioning is primarily about carry and diversification during a growth slowdown, rather than an outright alpha view.

These portfolio levers, in aggregate, create an allocation mix with a modest sector-selection bias towards rising inflation and a macro bias towards falling growth.

To this allocation, we add our Crisis Protection Program.

Read more

Subscribe now

For context, we visualize the live returns for our Integrated Program below:

Our programs are operating in line with their long-term expectations. To today’s note, which we will publish in “positions-only” format.

Today, the S&P 500 Program is positioned as follows:

Read more

This week, we also offer an active overlay through our Energy Program. The Energy Program seeks to provide exposure to the energy complex using our short-term timing measures. The objective of the Energy Program is to provide dynamic exposure to energy that can complement equity and fixed-income portfolios.

Subscribe now

For context, we visualize the live returns for our Integrated Program below:

Our programs are operating in line with their long-term expectations. As we approach the one-year anniversary of the program, we continue to seek to add more signals and return streams to further improve long-term expected performance. Below, we share the simulated historical performance of our Integrated Program:

To today’s note. The team is hard at work on a variety of research projects; as such, we will publish in “positions-only” format. Today, the S&P 500 Program is positioned as follows:

Read more

Subscribe now

For context, we visualize the live returns for our Integrated Program below:

Our programs are operating in line with their long-term expectations. As we approach the one-year anniversary of the program, we continue to seek to add more signals and return streams to further improve long-term expected performance. Below, we share a sneak preview of the next generation of tools we have in development at Prometheus:

We look forward to sharing these new programs with you soon. To today’s note. The team is hard at work on a variety of research projects; as such, we will publish in “positions-only” format.

Read more

Subscribe now

For context, we visualize the live returns for our Integrated Program below:

Our programs are operating in line with their long-term expectations. As we approach the one-year anniversary of the program, we continue to seek to add more signals and return streams to further improve long-term expected performance. Below, we share a sneak preview of the next generation of tools we have in development at Prometheus:

We look forward to sharing these new programs with you soon. To today’s note.

Read more

Subscribe now

You can read the 27-page primer detailing the mechanics of our approach to our S&P 500 Program below:

And the primer for our Crisis Protection Program as well:

For reference, we visualize the simulated path of the integrated Prometheus S&P 500 + Crisis Protection Program below:

Subscribe now

And the live returns for the Integrated S&P 500 + Crisis Program:

Our program is operating in line with its long-term expectations. Today, the S&P 500 Program is positioned as follows:

Read more

Subscribe now

You can read the 27-page primer detailing the mechanics of our approach to our S&P 500 Program below:

And the primer for our Crisis Protection Program as well:

For reference, we visualize the simulated path of the integrated Prometheus S&P 500 + Crisis Protection Program below:

Subscribe now

And the live returns for our S&P 500 + Crisis Program for context:

Our programs are operating in line with their long-term expectations. To today’s note.

Read more

Subscribe now

You can read the 27-page primer detailing the mechanics of our approach to our S&P 500 Program below:

And the primer for our Crisis Protection Program as well:

For reference, we visualize the simulated path of the integrated Prometheus S&P 500 + Crisis Protection Program below:

Subscribe now

And the live returns for our S&P 500 + Crisis Program for context:

Our programs are operating in line with their long-term expectations. To today’s note.

Read more

Subscribe now

You can read the 27-page primer detailing the mechanics of our approach to our S&P 500 Program below:

And the primer for our Crisis Protection Program as well:

For reference, we visualize the simulated path of the integrated Prometheus S&P 500 + Crisis Protection Program below:

Subscribe now

And the live returns for the Integrated S&P 500 + Crisis Program:

Our program is operating in line with its long-term expectations. Today, the S&P 500 Program is positioned as follows:

Read more

Subscribe now

You can read the 27-page primer detailing the mechanics of our approach to our S&P 500 Program below:

And the primer for our Crisis Protection Program as well:

For reference, we visualize the simulated path of the integrated Prometheus S&P 500 + Crisis Protection Program below:

Subscribe now

And the live returns for the Integrated S&P 500 + Crisis Program:

Our program is operating in line with its long-term expectations. Today, the S&P 500 Program is positioned as follows:

Read more

Subscribe now

You can read the 27-page primer detailing the mechanics of our approach to our S&P 500 Program below:

And the primer for our Crisis Protection Program as well:

For reference, we visualize the simulated path of the integrated Prometheus S&P 500 + Crisis Protection Program below:

Subscribe now

And the live returns for our major programs (with simulation extension for context):

Our S&P 500 Program is operating in line with its long-term expectations. Today, the S&P 500 Program is positioned as follows:

Our systems are maintaining equity allocations with elevated cash. There are four major takeaways from these positions:

• Beta Timing: Our beta timing measures show downward pressures in equity markets. More moderate exposure looks warranted.

• Sector Selection: Within the cross-section of equity sectors, our signals favor a mix of industrial and technology stocks. Our positioning remains skewed towards industrials due to better relative valuations.

• Risk Control: Our risk control continues to guide us effectively in managing drawdowns. In a multi-standard deviation event across all our positions, our expected drawdown is 3%.

• Bond Overlay: While the term structure of interest rates has continued to normalize, macro conditions remain too positive to consistently support bonds. We continue to look for better pricing to re-enter the bond market.

Our systems combine these dimensions to create one comprehensive outlook reflected in our portfolio positions.

Our latest tracking of economic growth indicates that the business cycle is slowing modestly, but remains in an expansionary phase. We show these proprietary tradable signals below:

Read more

Subscribe now

You can read the 27-page primer detailing the mechanics of our approach to our S&P 500 Program below:

And the primer for our Crisis Protection Program as well:

For reference, we visualize the simulated path of the integrated Prometheus S&P 500 + Crisis Protection Program below:

Subscribe now

And the live returns for our major programs (with simulation extension for context):

Our S&P 500 Program is operating in line with its long-term expectations.

To today’s note. The team will be on vacation through the New Year for some much-needed rest and relaxation. For the duration of this break, portfolios will be published in “positions-only” format. We’ll be back at it in full swing in 2026.

Today, the S&P 500 Program is positioned as follows:

Read more

Subscribe now

You can read the 27-page primer detailing the mechanics of our approach to our S&P 500 Program below:

And the primer for our Crisis Protection Program as well:

For reference, we visualize the simulated path of the integrated Prometheus S&P 500 + Crisis Protection Program below:

Subscribe now

And the live returns for our major programs (with simulation extension for context):

Our S&P 500 Program is operating in line with its long-term expectations.

To today’s note. The team will be on vacation through the New Year for some much-needed rest and relaxation. For the duration of this break, portfolios will be published in “positions-only” format. We’ll be back at it in full swing in 2026.

Today, the S&P 500 Program is positioned as follows:

Read more

Subscribe now

You can read the 27-page primer detailing the mechanics of our approach to our S&P 500 Program below:

And the primer for our Crisis Protection Program as well:

For reference, we visualize the simulated path of the integrated Prometheus S&P 500 + Crisis Protection Program below:

Subscribe now

And the live returns for our major programs (with simulation extension for context):

Our S&P 500 Program is operating in line with its long-term expectations. Today, the S&P 500 Program is positioned as follows:

Our systems are maintaining equity allocations with elevated cash. There are four major takeaways from these positions:

• Beta Timing: Our beta timing measures show modest downward pressures in equity markets. More moderate exposure looks warranted.

• Sector Selection: Within the cross-section of equity sectors, our signals favor a mix of industrial and technology stocks. Our positioning remains skewed towards industrials due to better relative valuations.

• Risk Control: Our risk control continues to guide us effectively in managing drawdowns. In a multi-standard deviation event across all our positions, our expected drawdown is 3%.

• Bond Overlay: While the term structure of interest rates has continued to normalize, macro conditions remain too positive to consistently support bonds. We continue to look for better pricing to re-enter the bond market.

Our systems combine these dimensions to create one comprehensive outlook reflected in our portfolio positions.

Our latest tracking of economic growth indicates that the business cycle is slowing modestly, but remains in an expansionary phase. We show these proprietary tradable signals below:

These business cycle conditions continue to support the prospects for positive earnings growth. However, expectations may have gone too far:

These conditions have developed over the last few weeks, with earnings expectations likely too exuberant at this junction. Further, mean reversion headwinds for equities have meaningfully risen, increasing the downside pressures on the index:

Further, expected returns for equity markets remain compressed versus other assets. Recall, today, cash offers essentially the same expected returns as stocks and bonds, with none of the risk:

Given our moderating beta timing signals and compressed expected returns across equities and bonds, max exposure is not warranted, and we can use our Crisis Protection Program as an overlay.

The Prometheus Crisis Protection Program seeks to offer a portfolio diversifier during periods of economic and financial instability by blending active exposure to Gold, TIPS, and VIX. Actively managing these exposures is integral, as their expected returns are time varying with the macro cycle. We demonstrate how actively managing these exposures can add significant value compared to holding them passively:

The most crucial part of this program is its correlation to equity markets. During equity market down days, this program has a mean Sharpe Ratio of 2, suggesting strong diversification characteristics to beta. Today, these programs do not see signs of elevated financial stress, which we capture in the form of our Volatility Stress gauge:

Nonetheless, gold and TIPS offer attractive expected returns during periods of elevated nominal GDP, easy monetary conditions, and above target inflation. As such, the Prometheus Crisis Protection Program is allocated as follows:

Read more

Subscribe now

You can read the 27-page primer detailing the mechanics of our approach to our S&P 500 Program below:

And the primer for our Crisis Protection Program as well:

For reference, we visualize the simulated path of the integrated Prometheus S&P 500 + Crisis Protection Program below:

Subscribe now

And the live returns for our major programs (with simulation extension for context):

Our S&P 500 Program is operating in line with its long-term expectations. Today, the S&P 500 Program is positioned as follows:

Our systems are maintaining equity allocations with elevated cash. There are four major takeaways from these positions:

• Beta Timing: Our beta timing measures show modest downward pressures in equity markets. More moderate exposure looks warranted.

• Sector Selection: Within the cross-section of equity sectors, our signals favor a mix of industrial and technology stocks. Our positioning remains skewed towards industrials due to better relative valuations.

• Risk Control: Our risk control continues to guide us effectively in managing drawdowns. In a multi-standard deviation event across all our positions, our expected drawdown is 6%.

• Bond Overlay: While the term structure of interest rates has continued to normalize, macro conditions remain too positive to consistently support bonds. We continue to look for better pricing to re-enter the bond market.

Our systems combine these dimensions to create one comprehensive outlook reflected in our portfolio positions.

Our latest tracking of economic growth indicates that the business cycle is slowing modestly, but remains in an expansionary phase. We show these proprietary tradable signals below:

These business cycle conditions continue to support the prospects for positive earnings growth. However, expectations may have gone too far:

These conditions have developed over the last few weeks, with earnings expectations likely too exuberant at this junction. Further, mean reversion headwinds for equities have meaningfully risen, increasing the downside pressures on the index:

Further, expected returns for equity markets remain compressed versus other assets. Recall, today, cash offers essentially the same expected returns as stocks and bonds, with none of the risk:

Given our moderating beta timing signals and compressed expected returns across equities and bonds, max exposure is not warranted, and we can use our Crisis Protection Program as an overlay.

The Prometheus Crisis Protection Program seeks to offer a portfolio diversifier during periods of economic and financial instability by blending active exposure to Gold, TIPS, and VIX. Actively managing these exposures is integral, as their expected returns are time varying with the macro cycle. We demonstrate how actively managing these exposures can add significant value compared to holding them passively:

The most crucial part of this program is its correlation to equity markets. During equity market down days, this program has a mean Sharpe Ratio of 2, suggesting strong diversification characteristics to beta. Today, these programs do not see signs of elevated financial stress, which we capture in the form of our Volatility Stress gauge:

Nonetheless, gold and TIPS offer attractive expected returns during periods of elevated nominal GDP, easy monetary conditions, and above target inflation. As such, the Prometheus Crisis Protection Program is allocated as follows:

The Crisis Protection Program currently has an expected volatility of 3.9%, with a maximum of 10%. In an outlier event, our estimate for a worst-case loss at the portfolio level over the next week is -2.7%.

A Defence First implementation of this program would be 100% invested, with no S&P 500 exposure. An S&P 500 Overlay would have 30% invested in leveraged S&P 500 exposure, with the remainder invested in this portfolio.

Integrating our S&P 500 and Crisis Protection programs offers an attractive and highly diversified portfolio. We visualize the simulated path of this portfolio below:

Today, this portfolio is allocated as follows:

The business cycle remains in an expansion, but equity prices look to have exceeded price gains justified by fundamental dynamics. This pricing doesn’t mean equity prices need to crash imminently, but rather that we’re likely to see higher price volatility. Moderate exposure remains a sensible approach, and increasing diversification will likely decrease portfolio volatility, while maintaining positive expected returns.

The future is dynamic, and our systems will adapt as the data evolves. We will keep you updated as the outlook shifts. Until next time.

Subscribe now

You can read the 27-page primer detailing the mechanics of our approach to our S&P 500 Program below:

And the primer for our Crisis Protection Program as well:

For reference, we visualize the simulated path of the integrated Prometheus S&P 500 + Crisis Protection Program below:

Subscribe now

Today, the S&P 500 Program is positioned as follows:

Our systems are pulling back on equity allocations and exiting nominal bonds. There are four major takeaways from these positions:

• Beta Timing: Our beta timing measures once again show mean-reversion pressures in equity markets. More moderate exposure looks warranted.

• Sector Selection: Within the cross-section of equity sectors, our signals favor a mix of industrial and technology stocks. Our positioning remains skewed towards industrials due to better relative valuations.

• Risk Control: Our risk control continues to guide us effectively in managing drawdowns. In a multi-standard deviation event across all our positions, our expected drawdown is 6%.

• Bond Overlay: While the term structure of interest rates has continued to normalize, macro conditions remain too positive to consistently support bonds. We continue to look for better pricing to re-enter the bond market.

Our systems combine these dimensions to create one comprehensive outlook reflected in our portfolio positions.

Our latest tracking of economic growth indicates that the business cycle is slowing modestly, but remains in an expansionary phase. We show these proprietary tradable signals below:

These business cycle conditions continue to support the prospects for positive earnings growth. However, expectations may have gone too far:

Read more

Subscribe now

You can read the 27-page primer detailing the mechanics of our approach to our S&P 500 Program below:

And the primer for our Crisis Protection Program as well:

For reference, we visualize the simulated path of the integrated Prometheus S&P 500 + Crisis Protection Program below:

Subscribe now

Today, the S&P 500 Program is positioned as follows:

Our systems remain long stocks, but are now adding fixed income while maintaining a moderate cash position. There are four major takeaways from these positions:

• Beta Timing: Our beta timing shows moderate signal strength at this time, pulling back from maximal levels of conviction. More moderate exposure looks warranted.

• Sector Selection: Within the cross-section of equity sectors, our signals favor a mix of industrial and technology stocks. Our positioning remains skewed towards industrials due to better relative valuations.

• Risk Control: Our risk control continues to guide us effectively in managing drawdowns. In a multi-standard deviation event across all our positions, our expected drawdown is 6%.

• Bond Overlay: The backdrop has begun to shift incrementally for bonds. With macro conditions moving toward a risk-off stance and the term structure normalizing, a modest allocation to bonds has become appropriate.

Our systems combine these dimensions to create one comprehensive outlook reflected in our portfolio positions.

Our latest tracking of economic growth indicates that the business cycle is slowing modestly, but remains in an expansionary phase. We show these proprietary tradable signals below:

These business cycle conditions continue to support the prospects for positive earnings growth. However, expectations may have gone too far:

These conditions have developed over the last few weeks, with earnings expectations likely too exuberant at this junction.

Nonetheless, mean reversion headwinds for equities have faded, reducing the downside pressures on the index:

Further, expected returns for equity markets remain compressed versus other assets. Recall, today, cash offers essentially the same expected returns as stocks and bonds, with none of the risk:

Given our moderating beta timing signals and compressed expected returns across equities and bonds, max exposure is not warranted, and we can use our Crisis Protection Program as an overlay.

The Prometheus Crisis Protection Program seeks to offer a portfolio diversifier during periods of economic and financial instability by blending active exposure to Gold, TIPS, and VIX. Actively managing these exposures is integral, as their expected returns are time varying with the macro cycle. We demonstrate how actively managing these exposures can add significant value compared to holding them passively:

The most crucial part of this program is its correlation to equity markets. During equity market down days, this program has a mean Sharpe Ratio of 2, suggesting strong diversification characteristics to beta. Today, these programs do not see signs of elevated financial stress, which we capture in the form of our Volatility Stress gauge:

Nonetheless, gold and TIPS offer attractive expected returns during periods of elevated nominal GDP, easy monetary conditions, and above target inflation. As such, the Prometheus Crisis Protection Program is allocated as follows:

The Crisis Protection Program currently has an expected volatility of 3.9%, with a maximum of 10%. In an outlier event, our estimate for a worst-case loss at the portfolio level over the next week is -2.7%.

A Defence First implementation of this program would have the 29% cash allocation in the S&P 500 instead of cash. An S&P 500 Overlay would have 30% invested in leveraged S&P 500 exposure, with the remainder invested in this portfolio.

Integrating our S&P 500 and Crisis Protection programs offers an attractive and highly diversified portfolio. We visualize the simulated path of this portfolio below:

Today, this portfolio is allocated as follows:

The business cycle remains in an expansion, but equity prices look to have exceeded price gains justified by fundamental dynamics. This pricing doesn’t mean equity prices need to crash imminently, but rather that we’re likely to see higher price volatility. Moderate exposure remains a sensible approach, and increasing diversification via increasing fixed income will likely decrease portfolio volatility, while maintaining positive expected returns.

The future is dynamic, and our systems will adapt as the data evolves. We will keep you updated as the outlook shifts. Until next time.

Subscribe now

You can read the 27-page primer detailing the mechanics of our approach to our S&P 500 Program below:

And the primer for our Crisis Protection Program as well:

For reference, we visualize the simulated path of the integrated Prometheus S&P 500 + Crisis Protection Program below:

Over the last week, our programs maintained moderate equity exposure, driven by an ongoing economic expansion, while also continuing to hold crisis protection assets.

Subscribe now

Today, the S&P 500 Program is positioned as follows:

Our systems remain long stocks, with an elevated amount of cash. There are four major takeaways from these positions:

• Beta Timing: Our beta timing shows moderate signal strength at this time, pulling back from maximal levels of conviction. More moderate exposure looks warranted.

• Sector Selection: Within the cross-section of equity sectors, our signals favor a mix of industrial and technology stocks. Our positioning remains skewed towards industrials due to better relative valuations.

• Risk Control: Our risk control continues to guide us effectively in managing drawdowns. In a multi-standard deviation event across all our positions, our expected drawdown is 5%.

• Bond Overlay: Our systems continue to see bonds as expensive in an environment where the economy remains resilient. Bonds offer little in the way of excess returns relative to cash and appear unattractive without a material weakening of the economy, which remains improbable.

Our systems combine these dimensions to create one comprehensive outlook reflected in our portfolio positions.

Our latest tracking of economic growth indicates that the business cycle is slowing modestly, but remains in an expansionary phase. We show these proprietary tradable signals below:

These business cycle conditions continue to support the prospects for positive earnings growth. However, expectations may have gone too far:

These conditions have developed over the last few weeks, with earnings expectations likely to be exuberant at this junction.

Read more