<![CDATA[Prometheus Research: S&P 500 Program]]>https://www.prometheus-macro.com/s/s-and-p-500-programhttps://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qmcQ!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa02f9e91-4feb-4772-bfdd-6748b9519fa0_400x400.pngPrometheus Research: S&P 500 Programhttps://www.prometheus-macro.com/s/s-and-p-500-programSubstackSat, 22 Aug 2026 10:34:29 GMT<![CDATA[Value & Risk Premium Compression Is Driving Equity Returns]]>https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/value-and-risk-premium-compressionhttps://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/value-and-risk-premium-compressionMon, 17 Aug 2026 17:33:08 GMTWe share the latest positions from our S&P 500 and Crisis Protection Programs.

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Equity markets continue to grind higher, offering the most consistent trends in major macro markets from a US perspective:

These trends are currently being driven by an expansion of valuation multiples:

However, there remains an extremely strong undercurrent of earnings momentum, dominantly being driven by changes in technology earnings:

A substantial part of these earnings expectations can be explained by macroeconomic conditions, but a very large part also comes from bottom-up, non-macro factors:

Consistent with this dynamic, our macro factor decomposition of earnings continues to see equity returns driven by a compression in risk premiums:

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]]><![CDATA[Prometheus S&P 500 + Crisis Program]]>https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/prometheus-s-and-p-500-crisis-program-f6ahttps://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/prometheus-s-and-p-500-crisis-program-f6aMon, 03 Aug 2026 18:31:59 GMTWe share the latest positions from our S&P 500 and Crisis Protection Programs.

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We share the latest positions from the Prometheus S&P 500 Program:

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]]><![CDATA[Prometheus S&P 500 + Crisis Program]]>https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/prometheus-s-and-p-500-crisis-program-965https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/prometheus-s-and-p-500-crisis-program-965Mon, 27 Jul 2026 16:23:55 GMTWe’re offering 30% off to all new subscribers for a limited time.

30% OFF: SUMMER SALE

For those unfamiliar, here’s an overview of what we offer at Prometheus:

Diving into today’s note.

We share the latest positions from the Prometheus S&P 500 Program:

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]]><![CDATA[Prometheus S&P 500 + Crisis Program]]>https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/prometheus-s-and-p-500-crisis-program-ccehttps://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/prometheus-s-and-p-500-crisis-program-cceMon, 20 Jul 2026 18:37:29 GMTThe S&P 500 remains within range of its recent highs as the economy continues to expand, corporate profits remain strong, and recession risk remains limited. However, there remain price-based risks to forward equity market returns. Below, we visualize the macro factor decomposition of equity market returns into returns from growth, inflation, policy, and the equity risk premium:

As we can see above, growth continues to support equity prices in a manner consistent with the economic expansion. Our inflation factor has shown much more mixed readings, with inflation hurting equities at the onset of the war, only to turn highly supportive in recent months. (Recall, equities are disinflationary assets, i.e., lower inflation is more supportive in the visual). Policy continues to be a drag on equities as monetary policy expectations of a hiking cycle continue to weigh on markets. Finally, the equity risk premium is the dominant driver of returns today. While the equity risk premium should indeed be a positive contributor to price returns over time, it is rarely a driver that can persistently rise at an accelerating pace as it is today. This opens the window for chop and potential downside in equities. In this note, we detail how our S&P 500 Program is approaching this dynamic.

The Prometheus S&P 500 Program aims to outperform the S&P 500 over a full investment cycle. The program will strive to achieve this objective by leveraging a combination of Sector Selection, Beta Timing, Active Overlays, and Dynamic Risk Control. Our S&P 500 Program can be integrated with our Crisis Protection Program, which seeks to offer a portfolio diversifier during periods of economic and financial instability by blending active, long-only exposure to Gold, TIPS, and VIX.

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For context, we visualize the live returns for our Integrated Program below:

Our programs are operating in line with their long-term expectations. Today, the S&P 500 Program is positioned as follows:

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]]><![CDATA[Prometheus S&P 500 + Crisis Program]]>https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/prometheus-s-and-p-500-crisis-program-9behttps://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/prometheus-s-and-p-500-crisis-program-9beMon, 13 Jul 2026 21:25:22 GMT
The Prometheus S&P 500 Program aims to outperform the S&P 500 over a full investment cycle. The program will strive to achieve this objective by leveraging a combination of Sector Selection, Beta Timing, Active Overlays, and Dynamic Risk Control. Our S&P 500 Program can be integrated with our Crisis Protection Program, which seeks to offer a portfolio diversifier during periods of economic and financial instability by blending active, long-only exposure to Gold, TIPS, and VIX.

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For context, we visualize the live returns for our Integrated Program below:

Our programs are operating in line with their long-term expectations. Today, the S&P 500 Program is positioned as follows:

There are four major takeaways from these positions:

Read more

]]><![CDATA[Prometheus S&P 500 + Crisis Program]]>https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/prometheus-s-and-p-500-crisis-program-6aehttps://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/prometheus-s-and-p-500-crisis-program-6aeMon, 06 Jul 2026 17:52:23 GMTThe Prometheus S&P 500 Program aims to outperform the S&P 500 over a full investment cycle. The program will strive to achieve this objective by leveraging a combination of Sector Selection, Beta Timing, Active Overlays, and Dynamic Risk Control. Our S&P 500 Program can be integrated with our Crisis Protection Program, which seeks to offer a portfolio diversifier during periods of economic and financial instability by blending active, long-only exposure to Gold, TIPS, and VIX.

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For context, we visualize the live returns for our Integrated Program below:

Our programs are operating in line with their long-term expectations. Today, the S&P 500 Program is positioned as follows:

There are four major takeaways from these positions:

  • Beta Timing: With equity momentum slowing and equity indexes beginning to look stretched, our signals are once again pointing to modest reversal pressures at the index level.

  • Sector Selection: Across the equity sectors, our signals favor technology and industrials.

  • Risk Control: Our risk control continues to guide us effectively in managing drawdowns. In a multi-standard-deviation event across all our positions, our expected drawdown is 7%.

  • Bond Overlay: With oil markets now selling off materially, pressure on fixed-income markets has eased. While still not in their optimal zone for expected returns, fixed-income carry is now a reasonable risk for investors to consider in their portfolios, prompting our bond overlay to re-enter fixed-income exposures.

To this allocation, we add our Crisis Protection Program. The Prometheus Crisis Protection Program is allocated as follows:

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]]><![CDATA[Prometheus S&P 500 + Crisis Program]]>https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/prometheus-s-and-p-500-crisis-program-dcdhttps://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/prometheus-s-and-p-500-crisis-program-dcdMon, 29 Jun 2026 16:40:45 GMTThe Prometheus S&P 500 Program aims to outperform the S&P 500 over a full investment cycle. The program will strive to achieve this objective by leveraging a combination of Sector Selection, Beta Timing, Active Overlays, and Dynamic Risk Control. Our S&P 500 Program can be integrated with our Crisis Protection Program, which seeks to offer a portfolio diversifier during periods of economic and financial instability by blending active, long-only exposure to Gold, TIPS, and VIX.

Subscribe now

For context, we visualize the live returns for our Integrated Program below:

Our programs are operating in line with their long-term expectations. Today, the S&P 500 Program is positioned as follows:

Read more

]]><![CDATA[Prometheus S&P 500 + Crisis Program]]>https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/prometheus-s-and-p-500-crisis-program-64dhttps://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/prometheus-s-and-p-500-crisis-program-64dMon, 22 Jun 2026 17:15:13 GMTThe Prometheus S&P 500 Program aims to outperform the S&P 500 over a full investment cycle. The program will strive to achieve this objective by leveraging a combination of Sector Selection, Beta Timing, Active Overlays, and Dynamic Risk Control. Our S&P 500 Program can be integrated with our Crisis Protection Program, which seeks to offer a portfolio diversifier during periods of economic and financial instability by blending active, long-only exposure to Gold, TIPS, and VIX.

Subscribe now

For context, we visualize the live returns for our Integrated Program below:

Our programs are operating in line with their long-term expectations. Today, the S&P 500 Program is positioned as follows:

Read more

]]><![CDATA[Prometheus S&P 500 + Crisis Program]]>https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/prometheus-s-and-p-500-crisis-program-3e5https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/prometheus-s-and-p-500-crisis-program-3e5Mon, 15 Jun 2026 17:54:25 GMTThe Prometheus S&P 500 Program aims to outperform the S&P 500 over a full investment cycle. The program will strive to achieve this objective by leveraging a combination of Sector Selection, Beta Timing, Active Overlays, and Dynamic Risk Control. Our S&P 500 Program can be integrated with our Crisis Protection Program, which seeks to offer a portfolio diversifier during periods of economic and financial instability by blending active, long-only exposure to Gold, TIPS, and VIX.

Subscribe now

For context, we visualize the live returns for our Integrated Program below:

Our programs are operating in line with their long-term expectations. Today, the S&P 500 Program is positioned as follows:

Read more

]]><![CDATA[Prometheus S&P 500 + Crisis Program]]>https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/prometheus-s-and-p-500-crisis-program-367https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/prometheus-s-and-p-500-crisis-program-367Mon, 08 Jun 2026 17:56:19 GMTThe Prometheus S&P 500 Program aims to outperform the S&P 500 over a full investment cycle. The program will strive to achieve this objective by leveraging a combination of Sector Selection, Beta Timing, Active Overlays, and Dynamic Risk Control. Our S&P 500 Program can be integrated with our Crisis Protection Program, which seeks to offer a portfolio diversifier during periods of economic and financial instability by blending active, long-only exposure to Gold, TIPS, and VIX.

Subscribe now

For context, we visualize the live returns for our Integrated Program below:

Our programs are operating in line with their long-term expectations. Today, the S&P 500 Program is positioned as follows:

Read more

]]><![CDATA[Prometheus S&P 500 + Crisis Program]]>https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/prometheus-s-and-p-500-crisis-program-ac4https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/prometheus-s-and-p-500-crisis-program-ac4Mon, 01 Jun 2026 17:06:58 GMTThe Prometheus S&P 500 Program aims to outperform the S&P 500 over a full investment cycle. The program will strive to achieve this objective by leveraging a combination of Sector Selection, Beta Timing, Active Overlays, and Dynamic Risk Control. Our S&P 500 Program can be integrated with our Crisis Protection Program, which seeks to offer a portfolio diversifier during periods of economic and financial instability by blending active, long-only exposure to Gold, TIPS, and VIX.

Subscribe now

For context, we visualize the live returns for our Integrated Program below:

Our programs are operating in line with their long-term expectations. Today, the S&P 500 Program is positioned as follows:

Read more

]]><![CDATA[Prometheus S&P 500 + Crisis Program]]>https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/prometheus-s-and-p-500-crisis-program-6c9https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/prometheus-s-and-p-500-crisis-program-6c9Tue, 26 May 2026 17:29:19 GMTThe Prometheus S&P 500 Program aims to outperform the S&P 500 over a full investment cycle. The program will strive to achieve this objective by leveraging a combination of Sector Selection, Beta Timing, Active Overlays, and Dynamic Risk Control. Our S&P 500 Program can be integrated with our Crisis Protection Program, which seeks to offer a portfolio diversifier during periods of economic and financial instability by blending active, long-only exposure to Gold, TIPS, and VIX.

Subscribe now

For context, we visualize the live returns for our Integrated Program below:

Our programs are operating in line with their long-term expectations. Today, the S&P 500 Program is positioned as follows:

Read more

]]><![CDATA[Prometheus S&P 500 + Crisis Program]]>https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/prometheus-s-and-p-500-crisis-program-c6ahttps://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/prometheus-s-and-p-500-crisis-program-c6aMon, 18 May 2026 18:35:30 GMTThe Prometheus S&P 500 Program aims to outperform the S&P 500 over a full investment cycle. The program will strive to achieve this objective by leveraging a combination of Sector Selection, Beta Timing, Active Overlays, and Dynamic Risk Control. Our S&P 500 Program can be integrated with our Crisis Protection Program, which seeks to offer a portfolio diversifier during periods of economic and financial instability by blending active, long-only exposure to Gold, TIPS, and VIX.

Subscribe now

For context, we visualize the live returns for our Integrated Program below:

Our programs are operating in line with their long-term expectations. Today, the S&P 500 Program is positioned as follows:

Read more

]]><![CDATA[Prometheus S&P 500 + Crisis Program]]>https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/prometheus-s-and-p-500-crisis-program-f12https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/prometheus-s-and-p-500-crisis-program-f12Mon, 11 May 2026 17:36:26 GMTThe Prometheus S&P 500 Program aims to outperform the S&P 500 over a full investment cycle. The program will strive to achieve this objective by leveraging a combination of Sector Selection, Beta Timing, Active Overlays, and Dynamic Risk Control. Our S&P 500 Program can be integrated with our Crisis Protection Program, which seeks to offer a portfolio diversifier during periods of economic and financial instability by blending active, long-only exposure to Gold, TIPS, and VIX.

Subscribe now

For context, we visualize the live returns for our Integrated Program below:

Our programs are operating in line with their long-term expectations. Today, the S&P 500 Program is positioned as follows:

Read more

]]><![CDATA[Prometheus S&P 500 + Crisis Program]]>https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/prometheus-s-and-p-500-crisis-program-d4chttps://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/prometheus-s-and-p-500-crisis-program-d4cMon, 04 May 2026 17:42:12 GMTThe Prometheus S&P 500 Program aims to outperform the S&P 500 over a full investment cycle. The program will strive to achieve this objective by leveraging a combination of Sector Selection, Beta Timing, Active Overlays, and Dynamic Risk Control. Our S&P 500 Program can be integrated with our Crisis Protection Program, which seeks to offer a portfolio diversifier during periods of economic and financial instability by blending active, long-only exposure to Gold, TIPS, and VIX.

Subscribe now

For context, we visualize the live returns for our Integrated Program below:

Our programs are operating in line with their long-term expectations. Today, the S&P 500 Program is positioned as follows:

Read more

]]><![CDATA[Prometheus S&P 500 + Crisis Program]]>https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/prometheus-s-and-p-500-crisis-program-2a2https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/prometheus-s-and-p-500-crisis-program-2a2Mon, 27 Apr 2026 17:01:42 GMTThe Prometheus S&P 500 Program aims to outperform the S&P 500 over a full investment cycle. The program will strive to achieve this objective by leveraging a combination of Sector Selection, Beta Timing, Active Overlays, and Dynamic Risk Control. Our S&P 500 Program can be integrated with our Crisis Protection Program, which seeks to offer a portfolio diversifier during periods of economic and financial instability by blending active, long-only exposure to Gold, TIPS, and VIX.

Subscribe now

For context, we visualize the live returns for our Integrated Program below:

Our programs are operating in line with their long-term expectations. Today, the S&P 500 Program is positioned as follows:

There are four major takeaways from these positions:

  • Beta Timing: Our beta timing measures continue to show downward pressure on equity indexes from locally expensive equities, which may have rallied too dramatically.

  • Sector Selection: Macro markets are experiencing a sustained inflation shock, which will change the distribution of sector returns. Across the equity sectors, our signals favor technology and industrials.

  • Risk Control: Our risk control continues to guide us effectively in managing drawdowns. In a multi-standard deviation event across all our positions, our expected drawdown is 8%.

  • Bond Overlay: While we face an ongoing inflation shock in market pricing, fundamental conditions are beginning to align more with a weakening growth backdrop. This weakness of growth, coupled with a modestly positive yield curve, makes treasuries and amenable exposure within a portfolio. This positioning is primarily about carry and diversification during a growth slowdown, rather than an outright alpha view.

To this allocation, we add our Crisis Protection Program. The Prometheus Crisis Protection Program is allocated as follows:

Read more

]]><![CDATA[Prometheus S&P 500 + Crisis Program]]>https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/prometheus-s-and-p-500-crisis-program-6eahttps://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/prometheus-s-and-p-500-crisis-program-6eaMon, 20 Apr 2026 17:29:03 GMTThe Prometheus S&P 500 Program aims to outperform the S&P 500 over a full investment cycle. The program will strive to achieve this objective by leveraging a combination of Sector Selection, Beta Timing, Active Overlays, and Dynamic Risk Control. Our S&P 500 Program can be integrated with our Crisis Protection Program, which seeks to offer a portfolio diversifier during periods of economic and financial instability by blending active, long-only exposure to Gold, TIPS, and VIX.

Subscribe now

For context, we visualize the live returns for our Integrated Program below:

Our programs are operating in line with their long-term expectations. Today, the S&P 500 Program is positioned as follows:

Read more

]]><![CDATA[Prometheus S&P + Crisis Program]]>https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/prometheus-s-and-p-crisis-program-1dbhttps://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/prometheus-s-and-p-crisis-program-1dbMon, 13 Apr 2026 17:35:06 GMTThe Prometheus S&P 500 Program aims to outperform the S&P 500 over a full investment cycle. The program will strive to achieve this objective by leveraging a combination of Sector Selection, Beta Timing, Active Overlays, and Dynamic Risk Control. Our S&P 500 Program can be integrated with our Crisis Protection Program, which seeks to offer a portfolio diversifier during periods of economic and financial instability by blending active, long-only exposure to Gold, TIPS, and VIX.

Subscribe now

For context, we visualize the live returns for our Integrated Program below:

Our programs are operating in line with their long-term expectations. To today’s note, which we will publish in “positions-only” format.

Read more

]]><![CDATA[Prometheus S&P + Crisis Program]]>https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/prometheus-s-and-p-crisis-programhttps://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/prometheus-s-and-p-crisis-programMon, 06 Apr 2026 18:49:07 GMTBefore we dive into today's note, we want to flag our latest milestone: 15,000 readers. Prometheus continues to grow and remains committed to bringing institutional-grade systematic investment strategies and research to everyday investors. To welcome you all, we’re offering a discount to new subscribers for the next year:

36% Off For New Annual Subscribers

The offer ends soon. See you on the other side.

The Prometheus S&P 500 Program aims to outperform the S&P 500 over a full investment cycle. The program will strive to achieve this objective by leveraging a combination of Sector Selection, Beta Timing, Active Overlays, and Dynamic Risk Control. Our S&P 500 Program can be integrated with our Crisis Protection Program, which seeks to offer a portfolio diversifier during periods of economic and financial instability by blending active, long-only exposure to Gold, TIPS, and VIX.

Subscribe now

For context, we visualize the live returns for our Integrated Program below:

Our programs are operating in line with their long-term expectations. To today’s note, which we will publish in “positions-only” format.

Read more

]]><![CDATA[Prometheus S&P 500 + Crisis Program]]>https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/prometheus-s-and-p-500-crisis-program-155https://www.prometheus-macro.com/p/prometheus-s-and-p-500-crisis-program-155Mon, 30 Mar 2026 16:54:35 GMTThe Prometheus S&P 500 Program aims to outperform the S&P 500 over a full investment cycle. The program will strive to achieve this objective by leveraging a combination of Sector Selection, Beta Timing, Active Overlays, and Dynamic Risk Control. Our S&P 500 Program can be integrated with our Crisis Protection Program, which seeks to offer a portfolio diversifier during periods of economic and financial instability by blending active, long-only exposure to Gold, TIPS, and VIX.

Subscribe now

For context, we visualize the live returns for our Integrated Program below:

Our programs are operating in line with their long-term expectations. To today’s note, which we will publish in “positions-only” format.

Today, the S&P 500 Program is positioned as follows:

There are four major takeaways from these positions:

  • Beta Timing: Our beta timing measures continue to show downward pressure on equity indexes coming from locally expensive equities, which are in a downtrend.

  • Sector Selection: Macro markets are experiencing a sustained inflation shock, which will change the distribution of sector returns. Within the cross-section of equity sectors, our signals have moved to favour energy and builders. This signal is in its early days and does run a modest risk of reversal.

  • Risk Control: Our risk control continues to guide us effectively in managing drawdowns. In a multi-standard deviation event across all our positions, our expected drawdown is 8%.

  • Bond Overlay: While we face an ongoing inflation shock in market pricing, fundamental conditions are beginning to align more with a weakening growth backdrop. This weakness of growth, coupled with a modestly positive yield curve, makes treasuries and amenable exposure within a portfolio. This positioning is primarily about carry and diversification during a growth slowdown, rather than an outright alpha view.

These portfolio levers, in aggregate, create an allocation mix with a modest sector-selection bias towards rising inflation and a macro bias towards falling growth.

To this allocation, we add our Crisis Protection Program.

Read more

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