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For context, we visualize the live returns for our Integrated Program below:

Our programs are operating in line with their long-term expectations. Today, the S&P 500 Program is positioned as follows:

Read more

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To today’s note, which we will publish in positions-only format.

Basic Trend Program

Trend following is a good solution for many investors, as it is intuitive and provides solid risk control. However, the signals used in trend following are fairly basic, so we don’t think there should be a high barrier to entry for basic trend-following strategies. As such, we will provide access to a Basic Trend Program at zero cost to users for a portfolio of Stocks, Gold, Bitcoin, and Bonds. The program uses three layers of portfolio construction: a risk-parity base, a two-speed trend overlay, and a 15% maximum volatility cap. These layers are applied versus a benchmark beta of 60% Stocks, 15% Bonds, 15% Gold, and 10% Bitcoin. We will release a methodology note soon, but in the meantime, we share the summary statistics and current positioning below:

This program currently has a 100% max long position in Stocks, a 50% max long position in Bonds, a 0% max long position in Gold, and a 0% max long position in Bitcoin.

In risk-parity terms, this translates to Stocks: 27%, Bonds: 20%, Gold: 0%, Bitcoin: 0%, and Cash: 53%. This reflects an expected volatility target of 6%.

Please note that these positions do not directly reflect the Prometheus trend measures, which are relevant to our proprietary and paid programs. The positions in our Basic Trend Program use an equal split between 1-month and 6-month trends.

While basic trend-following is a strong approach for many investors, there is a world of signals and strategies beyond it. We begin to address these in the following sections.

Macro Cycle Program

Our systems aggregate a wide range of fundamental economic data to produce timely, proprietary estimates of the current stages of the macro cycle. This process has navigated this year quite well thus far:

We visualize the simulated path of using this process below:

Combining our indicators, a Macro Cycle Allocation would be long

Read more

Subscribe now

For a deeper overview of Prometheus Institutional, read the link below:

Every day at midday, we share updates to our US Macro Regime Probabilities with Prometheus Institutional, along with our synthesis of what the current regime probabilities suggest.

Our Macro Regime Probabilities use our bottom-up signals across asset markets to construct forward-looking estimates for the cross-asset macro market regime. These signals incorporate both fundamental and price-based information to produce high-frequency, forward-looking estimates for the US cross-asset environment. These signals are best used as a forward-looking guide for the cross-sectional returns across macroeconomic assets. We define the regimes as follows:

• (+) G (-) I: Rising Growth & Falling Inflation, Equities Outperform

• (+) G (+) I: Rising Growth & Rising Inflation, Commodities Outperform

• (-) G (-) I: Falling Growth & Falling Inflation, Treasuries Outperform

• (-) G (+) I: Falling Growth & Rising Inflation, TIPs Outperform

Synthesis: Our Macro Regime Probabilities have shifted to reflect a higher probability of disinflationary cross-asset market outcomes. This shift materially reduces near-term pressure on fixed-income markets and moderates the potential strength of commodities. Crucially, this change further boosts the expected returns for equities by reducing the downside pressure on rate expectations. We visualize the expected returns for assets scaled by regime similarity over time below:

This regime mix favors being long stocks, bonds, and commodities—i.e., the preference for fixed-income shorts is removed. We show the expected returns for this portfolio scaled by regime similarity over time below:

We remain cautious on treasury exposure. While regime conditions are now more supportive, we think it is essential to recognize that these are potentially transient, market-action-driven shifts rather than a material change in fundamentals that will drive the Fed’s calculus. Pressure being lifted from breakeven pricing is not the same as pressure being lifted from the Fed; the latter is a far more durable signal for fixed income. Thus, we see this increase in disinflationary probabilities as more supportive of equities than fixed income.

Until next time.

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We share our latest note from The Observatory: CPI Inflation Monitor.

Synthesis: The latest CPI data offered little new information, simply confirming that inflationary pressures remain persistent. While core CPI offered some reprieve, with used vehicles weighing on the measure. With nominal motor vehicle sales running steady and the US remaining in a secular automobile shortage, we don’t expect transportation to be a consistent downward pressure on inflation. Finally, regardless of the marginal changes here, inflation remains very far from the Fed’s objectives, keeping us on the path to a hiking cycle.

Read all the data driving this assessment below:

The Observatory, Cpi Monitor

608KB ∙ PDF file

Download

Download

Until next time.

Subscribe now

For context, we visualize the live returns for our Integrated Program below:

Our programs are operating in line with their long-term expectations. Today, the S&P 500 Program is positioned as follows:

Read more

Subscribe now

To today’s note, which we will publish in positions-only format.

Basic Trend Program

Trend following is a good solution for many investors, as it is intuitive and provides solid risk control. However, the signals used in trend following are fairly basic, so we don’t think there should be a high barrier to entry for basic trend-following strategies. As such, we will provide access to a Basic Trend Program at zero cost to users for a portfolio of Stocks, Gold, Bitcoin, and Bonds. The program uses three layers of portfolio construction: a risk-parity base, a two-speed trend overlay, and a 15% maximum volatility cap. These layers are applied versus a benchmark beta of 60% Stocks, 15% Bonds, 15% Gold, and 10% Bitcoin. We will release a methodology note soon, but in the meantime, we share the summary statistics and current positioning below:

This program currently has a 100% max long position in Stocks, a 50% max long position in Bonds, a 50% max long position in Gold, and a 0% max long position in Bitcoin.

In risk-parity terms, this translates to Stocks: 45%, Bonds: 33%, Gold: 9%, Bitcoin: 0%, and Cash: 13%. This reflects an expected volatility target of 8%.

Please note that these positions do not directly reflect the Prometheus trend measures, which are relevant to our proprietary and paid programs. The positions in our Basic Trend Program use an equal split between 1-month and 6-month trends.

While basic trend-following is a strong approach for many investors, there is a world of signals and strategies beyond it. We begin to address these in the following sections.

Macro Cycle Program

Our systems aggregate a wide range of fundamental economic data to produce timely, proprietary estimates of the current stages of the macro cycle. This process has navigated this year quite well thus far:

We visualize the simulated path of using this process below:

Combining our indicators, a Macro Cycle Allocation would be long

Read more

Subscribe now

For a deeper overview of Prometheus Institutional, read the link below:

Every day at midday, we share updates to our US Macro Regime Probabilities with Prometheus Institutional, along with our synthesis of what the current regime probabilities suggest.

Our Macro Regime Probabilities use our bottom-up signals across asset markets to construct forward-looking estimates for the cross-asset macro market regime. These signals incorporate both fundamental and price-based information to produce high-frequency, forward-looking estimates for the US cross-asset environment. These signals are best used as a forward-looking guide for the cross-sectional returns across macroeconomic assets. We define the regimes as follows:

• (+) G (-) I: Rising Growth & Falling Inflation, Equities Outperform

• (+) G (+) I: Rising Growth & Rising Inflation, Commodities Outperform

• (-) G (-) I: Falling Growth & Falling Inflation, Treasuries Outperform

• (-) G (+) I: Falling Growth & Rising Inflation, TIPs Outperform

Synthesis: Our Macro Regime Probabilities continue to show a dominance of rising probabilities for growth and inflation. The regime mix remains biased toward rising growth. This regime continues to favor equities and commodities over fixed income, with the near-term more likely to favor equities. Below, we visualize the systematic application of this view over time, scaling our exposure to a portfolio that is long stocks, long commodities, and short fixed income based on regime-similarity:

Rising growth and inflation regimes have become more regular after a period of dormancy from 1980 to 2020. We continue to believe that asset allocation needs to adapt to reflect this shift.

Until next time.

Subscribe now

For context, we visualize the live returns for our Integrated Program below:

Our programs are operating in line with their long-term expectations. Today, the S&P 500 Program is positioned as follows:

Read more

Subscribe now

To today’s note, which we will publish in positions-only format.

Basic Trend Program

Trend following is a good solution for many investors, as it is intuitive and provides solid risk control. However, the signals used in trend following are fairly basic, so we don’t think there should be a high barrier to entry for basic trend-following strategies. As such, we will provide access to a Basic Trend Program at zero cost to users for a portfolio of Stocks, Gold, Bitcoin, and Bonds. The program uses three layers of portfolio construction: a risk-parity base, a two-speed trend overlay, and a 15% maximum volatility cap. These layers are applied versus a benchmark beta of 60% Stocks, 15% Bonds, 15% Gold, and 10% Bitcoin. We will release a methodology note soon, but in the meantime, we share the summary statistics and current positioning below:

This program currently has a 100% max long position in Stocks, a 0% max long position in Bonds, a 50% max long position in Gold, and a 0% max long position in Bitcoin.

In risk-parity terms, this translates to Stocks: 43%, Bonds: 0%, Gold: 8%, Bitcoin: 0%, and Cash: 49%. This reflects an expected volatility target of 6%.

Please note that these positions do not directly reflect the Prometheus trend measures, which are relevant to our proprietary and paid programs. The positions in our Basic Trend Program use an equal split between 1-month and 6-month trends.

While basic trend-following is a strong approach for many investors, there is a world of signals and strategies beyond it. We begin to address these in the following sections.

Macro Cycle Program

Our systems aggregate a wide range of fundamental economic data to produce timely, proprietary estimates of the current stages of the macro cycle. This process has navigated this year quite well thus far:

We visualize the simulated path of using this process below:

Combining our indicators, a Macro Cycle Allocation would be long

Read more

Our Macro Regime Probabilities use our bottom-up signals across asset markets to construct forward-looking estimates for the cross-asset macro market regime. These signals incorporate both fundamental and price-based information to produce high-frequency, forward-looking estimates for the US cross-asset environment. These signals are best used as a forward-looking guide for the cross-sectional returns across macroeconomic assets. We define the regimes as follows:

• (+) G (-) I: Rising Growth & Falling Inflation, Equities Outperform

• (+) G (+) I: Rising Growth & Rising Inflation, Commodities Outperform

• (-) G (-) I: Falling Growth & Falling Inflation, Treasuries Outperform

• (-) G (+) I: Falling Growth & Rising Inflation, TIPs Outperform

Read more

Subscribe now

For context, we visualize the live returns for our Integrated Program below:

Our programs are operating in line with their long-term expectations. Today, the S&P 500 Program is positioned as follows:

Read more

Subscribe now

To today’s note, which we will publish in positions-only format.

Basic Trend Program

Trend following is a good solution for many investors, as it is intuitive and provides solid risk control. However, the signals used in trend following are fairly basic, so we don’t think there should be a high barrier to entry for basic trend-following strategies. As such, we will provide access to a Basic Trend Program at zero cost to users for a portfolio of Stocks, Gold, Bitcoin, and Bonds. The program uses three layers of portfolio construction: a risk-parity base, a two-speed trend overlay, and a 15% maximum volatility cap. These layers are applied versus a benchmark beta of 60% Stocks, 15% Bonds, 15% Gold, and 10% Bitcoin. We will release a methodology note soon, but in the meantime, we share the summary statistics and current positioning below:

This program currently has a 100% max long position in Stocks, a 0% max long position in Bonds, a 50% max long position in Gold, and a 50% max long position in Bitcoin.

In risk-parity terms, this translates to Stocks: 47%, Bonds: 0%, Gold: 9%, Bitcoin: 6%, and Cash: 37%. This reflects an expected volatility target of 8%.

Please note that these positions do not directly reflect the Prometheus trend measures, which are relevant to our proprietary and paid programs. The positions in our Basic Trend Program use an equal split between 1-month and 6-month trends.

While basic trend following is a strong solution for many investors, there is a world of signals and strategies beyond it. We begin to address these in the following sections.

Macro Cycle Program

Our systems aggregate a wide range of fundamental economic data to produce timely, proprietary estimates of the current stages of the macro cycle. This process has navigated this year quite well thus far:

We visualize the simulated path of using this process below:

Combining our indicators, a Macro Cycle Allocation would be long

Read more

Subscribe now

Synthesis: The surge in global energy prices, coupled with resilient US nominal activity, is likely to put material pressure on the Fed to begin a monetary policy hiking cycle. These pressures will continue to weigh on US Treasuries until we see clear signs of inflation -induced demand destruction.

Read all the data driving this assessment below:

Month In Macro: May 2026

1.96MB ∙ PDF file

Download

Download

Until next time.

Subscribe now

For context, we visualize the live returns for our Integrated Program below:

Our programs are operating in line with their long-term expectations. Today, the S&P 500 Program is positioned as follows:

Read more

This access will include our tracking of fundamental conditions via The Observatory, select signals from the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program, excerpts from The Monitor, and daily updates to our Macro Regime Probabilities. Out of respect for our clients at Prometheus Institutional, we cannot make every part of our work available here for free — but the volume and depth of what we share this week will be substantial.

Subscribe now

Our objective in sharing these materials is to give you a glimpse of all the tools available at Prometheus Institutional. For a deeper overview of Prometheus Institutional, read the link below:

Or get in touch by emailing info@prometheus-research.com. We share our latest note from The Observatory.

The Observatory is our real-time monitoring of the US economy. It offers a regular systematic dissection of virtually every major fundamental macro data set released in the US. We scan the time-series characteristics, sectoral decompositions, macro-cycle implications, and the effects on GDP and inflation of each release, with an understanding of the nuances and specific manipulations required for each data series. The Observatory seeks to paint a moving picture of the economic cycle, print by print.

We share our latest note from The Observatory: Industrial Production Monitor.

Synthesis: The latest industrial production data continued to show mixed, but nonetheless positive readings. The latest sequential data and the trending breadth continue to skew positive. However, recent momentum has been mixed, weighing on growth. This print suggests continued expansion of the industrial sector, but does not imply acceleration, which may be a headwind for industrial equities.

Read all the data driving this assessment below:

The Observatory: Industrial Production Monitor

720KB ∙ PDF file

Download

Download

Until next time.

Subscribe now

To today’s note, which we will publish in positions-only format.

Basic Trend Program

Trend following is a good solution for many investors, as it is intuitive and provides solid risk control. However, the signals used in trend following are fairly basic, so we don’t think there should be a high barrier to entry for basic trend-following strategies. As such, we will provide access to a Basic Trend Program at zero cost to users for a portfolio of Stocks, Gold, Bitcoin, and Bonds. The program uses three layers of portfolio construction: a risk-parity base, a two-speed trend overlay, and a 15% maximum volatility cap. These layers are applied versus a benchmark beta of 60% Stocks, 15% Bonds, 15% Gold, and 10% Bitcoin. We will release a methodology note soon, but in the meantime, we share the summary statistics and current positioning below:

This program currently has a 100% max long position in Stocks, a 0% max long position in Bonds, a 50% max long position in Gold, and a 50% max long position in Bitcoin.

In risk-parity terms, this translates to Stocks: 47%, Bonds: 0%, Gold: 10%, Bitcoin: 6%, and Cash: 37%. This reflects an expected volatility target of 8%.

Please note that these positions do not directly reflect the Prometheus trend measures, which are relevant to our proprietary and paid programs. The positions in our Basic Trend Program use an equal split between 1-month and 6-month trends.

While basic trend following is a strong solution for many investors, there is a world of signals and strategies beyond it. We begin to address these in the following sections.

Macro Cycle Program

Our systems aggregate a wide range of fundamental economic data to produce timely, proprietary estimates of the current stages of the macro cycle. This process has navigated this year quite well thus far:

We visualize the simulated path of using this process below:

Combining our indicators, a Macro Cycle Allocation would be long

Read more

This access will include our tracking of fundamental conditions via The Observatory, select signals from the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program, excerpts from The Monitor, and daily updates to our Macro Regime Probabilities. Out of respect for our clients at Prometheus Institutional, we cannot make every part of our work available here for free — but the volume and depth of what we share this week will be substantial.

Subscribe now

Our objective in sharing these materials is to give you a glimpse of all the tools available at Prometheus Institutional. For a deeper overview of Prometheus Institutional, read the link below:

Or get in touch by emailing info@prometheus-research.com.

Every day at midday, we share updates to our US Macro Regime Probabilities with Prometheus Institutional, along with our synthesis of what the current regime probabilities suggest.

Our Macro Regime Probabilities use our bottom-up signals across asset markets to construct forward-looking estimates for the cross-asset macro market regime. These signals incorporate both fundamental and price-based information to produce high-frequency, forward-looking estimates for the US cross-asset environment. These signals are best used as a forward-looking guide for the cross-sectional returns across macroeconomic assets. We define the regimes as follows:

• (+) G (-) I: Rising Growth & Falling Inflation, Equities Outperform

• (+) G (+) I: Rising Growth & Rising Inflation, Commodities Outperform

• (-) G (-) I: Falling Growth & Falling Inflation, Treasuries Outperform

• (-) G (+) I: Falling Growth & Rising Inflation, TIPs Outperform

Synthesis: Our Macro Regime Probabilities continue to show a dominance of rising growth and inflation probabilities. The regime mix is now biased toward rising growth. This regime mix continues to favor equities and commodities relative to fixed income. This week has materialized significant downside in fixed income. Until we enter a definitive Fed policy cycle, we continue to believe investors should leverage mean reversion to navigate this regime most effectively.

Until next time.

This access will include our tracking of fundamental conditions via The Observatory, select signals from the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program, excerpts from The Monitor, and daily updates to our Macro Regime Probabilities. Out of respect for our clients at Prometheus Institutional, we cannot make every part of our work available here for free — but the volume and depth of what we share this week will be substantial.

Subscribe now

Our objective in sharing these materials is to give you a glimpse of all the tools available at Prometheus Institutional. For a deeper overview of Prometheus Institutional, read the link below:

Or get in touch by emailing info@prometheus-research.com.

The Monitor is how we track and communicate the positioning and reasoning of the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program. Delivered every morning at 8 AM ET, The Monitor contains our fastest reads on macro conditions—daily trackers of growth and inflation, forward-looking macro regime probabilities, global expected returns across assets, short-term regime forecasts for individual markets, and the signals and synthesis from the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program.

A significant portion of The Monitor is dedicated to time-sensitive signals and programs with economic value. Out of respect for the clients of Prometheus Institutional, we cannot make every part of our work available here, but the excerpts below reflect what is most relevant to today’s circumstances.

Read today’s excerpts from The Monitor below:

The Monitor: 5.14.2026

822KB ∙ PDF file

Download

Download

Until next time.

This access will include our tracking of fundamental conditions via The Observatory, select signals from the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program, excerpts from The Monitor, and daily updates to our Macro Regime Probabilities. Out of respect for our clients at Prometheus Institutional, we cannot make every part of our work available here for free — but the volume and depth of what we share this week will be substantial.

Subscribe now

Our objective in sharing these materials is to give you a glimpse of all the tools available at Prometheus Institutional. For a deeper overview of Prometheus Institutional, read the link below:

Or get in touch by emailing info@prometheus-research.com. We share our latest note from The Observatory.

The Observatory is our real-time monitoring of the US economy. It offers a regular systematic dissection of virtually every major fundamental macro data set released in the US. We scan the time-series characteristics, sectoral decompositions, macro-cycle implications, and the effects on GDP and inflation of each release, with an understanding of the nuances and specific manipulations required for each data series. The Observatory seeks to paint a moving picture of the economic cycle, print by print.

We share our latest note from The Observatory: Retail Sales Monitor.

Synthesis: The latest retail sales numbers show some of the initial effects of the inflation shock from the spike in oil prices. Gas sales accounted for much of nominal sales; however, after accounting for inflation, our estimates indicate materially negative retail sales. This decline in real retail sales suggests a material step-down in consumer spending.

Read all the data driving this assessment below:

The Observatory: Retail Sales Monitor

385KB ∙ PDF file

Download

Download

Until next time.

This access will include our tracking of fundamental conditions via The Observatory, select signals from the Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program, excerpts from The Monitor, and daily updates to our Macro Regime Probabilities. Out of respect for our clients at Prometheus Institutional, we cannot make every part of our work available here for free — but the volume and depth of what we share this week will be substantial.

Subscribe now

Our objective in sharing these materials is to give you a glimpse of all the tools available at Prometheus Institutional. For a deeper overview of Prometheus Institutional, read the link below:

Or get in touch by emailing info@prometheus-research.com.

Every day at midday, we share updates to our US Macro Regime Probabilities with Prometheus Institutional, along with our synthesis of what the current regime probabilities suggest.

Our Macro Regime Probabilities use our bottom-up signals across asset markets to construct forward-looking estimates for the cross-asset macro market regime. These signals incorporate both fundamental and price-based information to produce high-frequency, forward-looking estimates for the US cross-asset environment. These signals are best used as a forward-looking guide for the cross-sectional returns across macroeconomic assets. We define the regimes as follows:

• (+) G (-) I: Rising Growth & Falling Inflation, Equities Outperform

• (+) G (+) I: Rising Growth & Rising Inflation, Commodities Outperform

• (-) G (-) I: Falling Growth & Falling Inflation, Treasuries Outperform

• (-) G (+) I: Falling Growth & Rising Inflation, TIPs Outperform

Synthesis: Our Macro Regime Probabilities continue to show a dominance of rising growth and inflation probabilities. The regime mix is now biased toward rising growth. This regime mix continues to favor equities and commodities relative to fixed income. Markets continue to reward this exposure mix on a trend basis, despite a modest reversal today.

Until next time.